General

Predictions We Will Regret, Midseason Edition

Oct 17, 2008, 5:30 PM UTC

The midpoint of the college football season hath arrived, and it is time to properly recalibrate, hit the ATM and double down for the second half. Yes, it’s half over, and yes, we collectively still know next to nothing about who might be good, who might falter down the stretch and what teams are lying in wait and ready to make a fierce charge into contention.â†µ

â†µYou can't let this stop you from making grandiose statements about what will happen in the second half of the season, though. If you don't make blustery assumptions about what will happen despite still having only six games by which to judge every team, then the terrorists have won, reader. â†µ

â†µâ†µMissouri will lose at least one other game. Oklahoma State set the blueprint for beating Mizzou: mix your coverages, stunt the line and keep Chase Daniel guessing while stuffing the run. Of course, this is like saying an easy way to ride out an earthquake is to get under something flexible yet sturdy, and just relax until the earth stops moving. â†µ

â†µâ†µStill, OK State got pressure on Daniel with a four-man rush that was ranked in the triple-digits in sacks going into the upset. (114th out of 119, to be precise.) The prospects for any team with a really good pass rush -- Brian Orakpo, come on down! -- seem much better in light of the Cowboy’s cure for the plague of Mizzou’s nigh-unstoppable offense. (Even in defeat, Daniel still had 390 yards passing. You can’t prevent, but can only mitigate, what they do offensively.) â†µ

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â†µAlabama will lose at least one game, and it will seem familiar. Mike Shula used to be the coach at Alabama. Life at Alabama was somehow so much wackier back then ... â†µ

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â†µâ†µThey also lost more games back then, with the notable exception of 2005, when Alabama went without a loss until a 16-13 loss to LSU in overtime. This Alabama team is a very different team -- stronger along the lines, for sure -- but the scenario of going to Baton Rouge late in the season to face a wounded LSU team is an unpleasant one at best, especially if LSU fans kick off the weekend by flipping Nick Saban’s bus over on the way into the stadium. â†µ

â†µâ†µAlso: never underestimate the magical powers of Mississippi State to get eight first downs, turn the ball over three times and still win a game on the road at Tuscaloosa. Croom’s the name. Winning improbable games despite the stat line is the game. â†µ

â†µâ†µAnd that’s all coming after the Houston Nutt Experience this weekend, which can be an excruciating one at times, especially in games the Nutt team is not supposed to win. If you doubt the veracity of this statement, please contact Florida coach Urban Meyer at urbz [at] wouldbenumberthreeinnationnowifnotforthewildrebels [dot] com.â†µ

â†µâ†µUSC will lose another game to get their requisite two losses on the year. The USC offense has been the lurking double agent in any and all of the team’s losses in the post-Norm Chow era, and has been thus far this season. Only a toothless Arizona State offense prevented a truly ugly game against the Sun Devils, whose impotence allowed USC to score a misleading 28-0 victory last week despite five turnovers. â†µ

â†µâ†µPete Carroll blamed this on a lack of rhythm, and he’s right: USC has struggled to find a consistent tempo on offense in large part because of constant shuffling at running back and the underwhelming performance of tailback Joe McKnight. Should they stutter at Arizona or against Cal or even Stanford, you’ll see another loss for a team that can’t decide on two running backs, much less one, as a consistent option on first and second down. Then they’ll hit the two losses -- which seem to be the gold standard for big programs in the era of scholarship limitations and skyrocketing athletic budgets -- and then crush whomever they face in the Rose Bowl. Standard stuff, really. â†µ

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â†µUtah will be the BCS Buster. QB Brian Johnson, if he's not cursed by injury as has so often been the case in his career, will lead the Utes' charge to become the Most Annoying Team in the Land for the BCS, or as the punditry calls them, the "BCS Buster." Don't get huffy: Utah themselves aren't annoying, unless you happen to be playing them and hate defending their trixy spread or getting hit in the face by their defense. â†µ

â†µâ†µIt’s the position they’re forced to occupy that’s annoying: the beauty contest at-large pick that some years results in magic (see: Boise State) and some years in bloody exposure via the hands of a far superior team (see: Hawaii). It’s the inconsistency of the pick that bothers more than anything else, not the teams themselves.â†µ

â†µâ†µThis will not be a problem if Utah beats both TCU and BYU, both of whom have to play Utah in Salt Lake City. Getting past both of them and not dropping any gimmes along the way earns them the slot without qualification or hedging. â†µ

â†µâ†µ(Okay, I lie about the teams not being annoying. It was satisfying to watch Georgia turn Colt Brennan’s ribs to jell-o in the Sugar Bowl after Hawaii got in with such a weak schedule. I’m a terrible person, but you knew that already.) â†µ

â†µâ†µThe MNC (Mythical National Championship) Winner will not come from the ACC. Just kidding. We all knew this one always happens. â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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