Across the SB Nation network our combat sports sites have given their predictions for tomorrow evening’s UFC 104 card headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Here is a quick breakdown of each site’s feelings on the main event as well as a link to each site’s full prediction breakdown:
UFC 104: Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua Prediction Round-Up
Luke Thomas: Rua is going to need every ounce of durability here. Quite candidly, the only way I see him even having a chance is not off of a lightning quick strike or offensive dump, but on the rebound. Machida can be a little over aggressive when following up on a hurt opponent in a rush to finish. If Rua can hang on in those moments and get through, he might be able to reverse fortunes. Of course, we're talking serious, serious longshots here. Machida is going to hurt him badly. Machida by TKO, round 3.
Kid Nate: This would be a very different fight in a square ring where Rua could trap Machida in a corner and force the kind of ugly up-close exchanges where he thrives. But there are no corners in the Octagon and Machida should pick Rua apart on the feet. I think there is a chance that Rua's incredible balance could put him on top of Machida if they fight for takedowns in the clinch and from there, Shogun could very well win the fight. But that's a slim chance and not enough reason to pick against the champ. Lyoto should destroy Shogun's rhythm, batter him with potshots and finish him in the 2nd or 3rd. Machida by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: When I picked Shogun to knock out Chuck it was more a product of Chuck's decline than any deep belief in Rua's abilities. While I think that Shogun at his best is a threat to beat anyone in the world I haven't seen anything that truly makes me think that he has returned to the kind of form that we can truly call his "best." Machida, however, is at the peak of his career. He may be able to get better but I doubt he is getting any worse any time soon. Machida's strategy needs to be what it always is, stick and move early landing when he wants. Once we get into the second half of the first round Shogun will become considerably less dangerous (unless his cardio is significantly improved). I do think that even a gassed Shogun won't be finished in this fight so as much as I'd like to see a knockout...Lyoto Machida by decision.
Michael Rome: I don't really see this being all that close, but I still think it will be a fun fight. To me, the best strategy for Shogun is to be cautiously aggressive. Constantly move forward and make Machida use a lot of energy moving around while not leaving himself open, and then try to turn it on in the third round. I don't think he'll do that. I think he'll be patient for about 2 minutes and then lose it. Lyoto Machida via KO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Great fight here. I believe Shogun is underrated according to the betting odds. But I can't pick against. Machida Machida by TKO.
Eugene Schelfaut: The avenues through which Rua can finish the fight or win a majority of rounds are slim. Therefore, Lyoto Machida by TKO, round 3.
Leland Roling: Rua's best chance to defeat "The Dragon" is either on the floor or in some sort of PRIDE-era rage in the clinch game. Unfortunately, I think Machida is way too quick to be mimiced, way too smart, and way too elusive for "Shogun" to have any idea what to expect when it comes fight time. Machida will parry Rua's attacks and counter instantly, pummeling him on his way to victory. Rua has yet to show a gas tank, and if this goes into the late rounds... forget it. Lyoto Machida via TKO, Round 3.
Rua fans point to the Liddell knockout as his rebirth, but let’s be honest. Knocking out “The Iceman” after Rampage and Evans did it is like banging the prom queen two years after graduating — when she’s already cranked out two kids and gotten hooked on meth. Shogun has been on a slow and steady decline. Whether it’s from the multiple knee surgeries or the simple fact that he just can’t get comfortable inside the cage, I haven’t seen anything from him in the past two years to indicate he’s got the ability to dethrone a fighter who is at the top of his game. Machida’s war wagon is firing on all cylinders. Rua’s is pulled over on the side of the road, trying to figure out why it keeps overheating.
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Prediction: Machida via technical knockout
Charles Walker-While the closer it gets, I give Shogun a little more chance, I still have to think he's coming off less than stellar fights, including his fight with Chuck, which he won but still got clipped more than once against a much older and slower opponent. I think Machida has an answer wherever the fight goes and even with his low hands and off balance stance when he's moving, he's HARD to hit. A wild, Capoeria - type kick still could be a vital tool for Shogun, but I don't think he'll get it done. Machida via TKO in Round 3.
Rich Wyatt-Lyoto Machida over Mauricio Rua by decision. It wouldn't surprise me if this was a very tactical matchup that isn't as exciting as most fans would like. Great matchup, though. Can't wait!
Kelvin Hunt-If Shogun find the opportunity to use the clinch to do damage or take Machida down he has a chance. Otherwise, Machida will win via decision of late TKO. I'm going with Machida via decision.
Nick Becker: Quite simply, Machida is at the top of his game. At the moment there's no one at 205 that looks even capable of winning a round against him. For all the flak that he received in his first four UFC bouts for being a "boring" fighter, Machida saved UFC 94 and 98 with his scintillating KO's. Machida should be able to put an exclamation point on what looks to be (on paper, at least) like another mundane night of fights. Shogun hasn't looked great in years; but even at his peak, I don't believe he'd stand a chance against The Dragon. Look for the finish to come at some point in the second round, with your winner and still champion, Machida by KO Round 2.
Zach Krantz: Shogun is still at a point in his career where he can win any fight he goes into. He possesses a versatile striking game, has unmatched aggression, and is a terrific athlete. He is not as big an underdog as he is being portrayed. If I were to bet on the fight I would take Shogun. However, that is because of his odds and if I am picking who wins the fight then I will go with "The Dragon." A counter striker with amazing angles, timing, and precision is the perfect match up for an aggressive fighter. If Shogun tries to take it to the mat he does not have the top control to win the fight. My guess is whatever plan Shogun has goes out the window in the second round and Machida wins via KO/TKO at the end of Round 2.
E. Spencer Kyte: I'm not even going to waste my time over-analyzing this as some have or going with the trending upset pick that Mauricio Rua has become. All I really have to say is this: Lyoto Machida is 15-0, is the least hit fighter in the history of the UFC, lands 65% of his strikes and has rattled off wins over Sokoudjou, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans.
Shogun struggled with an old and out-of-shape Mark Coleman. Yes, he was coming back off an injury and looked good against Chuck Liddell, but looking good against Chuck Liddell is a far cry from defeating the undefeated light heavyweight champ.
Gimme Machida via TKO Round 2.Zak Woods: No one, and I mean no one in the MMA media is giving Shogun much of a chance. Usually this is a recipe for something crazy to happy, Forrest Griffin or Matt Serra anyone? Still, Machida is so elusive (almost as annoying as when people say that Brett Favre is "just having fun out there") and so unorthodox is there really any way Rua can beat him? I can't see how "Shogun" wins this fight other than some cray come from behind triangle choke like Tito Ortiz almost pulled off. I guess this means we will all have to prepare our ritualistic sacrifices to the alter of Machida-karate. Machida via TKO Round 2.
So 15 predictions, 15 writers picking Machida to win. Is it really a lock? The only way to find out is tomorrow night in the cage.
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