Start/Sit: Bargains & Busts

In fantasy sports, timing is as important as opportunity. We are now at the midway point in the season, and certain players who were expected to be star performers have simply been falling stars that we keep wishing on, week after week. This week, before we get to out start/sit section, I want to look at a few players that you want to target as nice buy low prospects, before they have a blow-out game, and a couple of guys you want to avoid, thinking they will finally turn the corner.

Greg Jennings, WR, GBP - There may be no more potentially fantasy explosive player out there with as much potential for stealing in a trade. This week I packaged Mike Bell and Roy Williams for Greg Jennings and Kenny Britt, in a keeper league. However, you need not be in a keeper league to reap the benefits of Jennings the remainder of the year. I expect a big game from him as early as this week. There is simply too much talent there, and earlier in the season he had a hand injury that was impacting his performance. His time is coming, so steal him in a trade now before the price goes up.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Smith is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. His QB has played poorly as has the team’s offensive line. While Smith will still struggle with those two issues this season, the team cannot afford to have him disgruntled and will find ways to get him more balls. He’s currently the 7th most targeted receiver in the NFL this season; so far though it hasn’t led to fantasy production. While he doesn’t have quite the same upside as Jennings this season, he does have a very low price tag for the production he should offer the rest of the way. If you’re in a keeper league, he’s an even greater bargain.

Jason Witten, TE, DAL - Witten was supposed to be this season’s top tight end. So far he’s got one TD to show for it. However, he’s still top 10 in targets and receiving yards, so a few TDs should come in the second half.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, BUF - He missed three games with his suspension. He got off to a somewhat slow start, and the waters have been murky with Fred Jackson originally performing so well. However, Lynch is getting into his groove, and the team is relying on him as the guy. This may be the last window of opportunity to buy low on someone who should be solidly productive the rest of the way.

There are some guys out there who look like they should break loose at any time, but I don’t think it’s going to happen with the guys I’m about to mention and I would not go for the buy low fever unless you get them for pennies on the dollar.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SDG - When you can’t get it in the endzone on four attempts against the Chiefs, I’m thinking your best days are behind you. Especially after pitching a televised fit when your coach pulled you the previous week on a third and goal. This week he faces the lowly Raiders rush defense, and people are expecting him to explode. He may finally get 100 yards and a TD, but it’s the Raiders... You can rush for 100 yards and a score against them.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI - Forte has hit one of the worst sophomore slumps I’ve ever seen. He’s got one touchdown, and he’s averaging 53 yards a game. His YPC is under 3.5. Unlike receivers who count as much on the QB and opportunity as they do their own skills, running backs get a certain number of shots every game, and offensive line aside, it’s their job to make something happen. While you would like to see Forte getting 20+ touches a game, he is getting 15+ a game and doing nothing with it. Simple odds would suggest a few breakout plays, and they just haven’t happened. I don’t see that changing this season.

Roy Williams, WR, DAL - When you’re fighting for your job, and you miss four of five balls thrown your way, (including two drops), the signs are all pointing to dead end. Do not be the wishful thinker praying for a sudden resurgence from a guy who never really surged anyway. His value has always been in his promise and not his performance.

Terrell Owens, WR, BUF - I feel for T.O. this season. I really do. He’s got no solid QB to speak of, and the team is a run first offense. Whether it’s declining skills or simply lack of opportunity, T.O. is not going to suddenly bust loose, barring an exception game.

Back to the week at hand...

The New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Redskins are all on a bye this week. Start hanging your holiday lights early, gents. That means you’ll be without the following fantasy staples:

QBs - Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Tom Brady, Matt Cassell, Carson Palmer and the newly appointed, Josh Freeman

RBs - Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, Laurence Maroney, Cadillac Williams, Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson Jamaal Charles

WRs - Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Santana Moss, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Chris Henry, Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco

TEs - Heath Miller, Ben Watson, Kellen Winslow, Sean Ryan and Chris Cooley Fred Davis

--Quarterbacks--

The big guns, like Brees, Manning, Rodgers, etc are all obvious starts this week, but who can you plug in for guys like Brady and Roethlisberger?

David Garrard, JAX - He is facing a woefully poor Titans secondary that is getting torched week in and week out by every team they play. In their previous match-up this season Garrard tossed three TDs.

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA - Hasselbeck is a mixed bag this season; he either explodes for three or four TDs or he does nothing. His two big games have been at home, and his less than stellar games on the road. He’s at Dallas this week, but he should be good for two TDs, even if he has a subpar game.

Kyle Orton, DEN - Somehow, week in and week out, Orton gets the job done. He’s usually solid for two scores, and he seldom makes bad plays, thus turning over the ball.

Brett Favre, MIN - Favre has a lot to prove this week facing his old team at Lambeau Field, and coming off a terrible personal performance against the Steelers last week. He should leave it all on the field this Sunday.

--Running Backs--

These guys are clearly not bye week fillers, but my two must start RBs of the week are Steven Jackson, STL and Kevin Smith, DET. I like both to have over 100 yards rushing and at least one score each.

Chris “Beanie” Wells, ARI - This is the first time all season I’ve had any confidence recommending him for a bye week start. He has started to show the team he can get tough yards and hang onto the ball. The Panthers are 10th worst against the run and have given up 8 TDs to RBs so far.

Darren Sproles, SDC - Everyone is looking to L.T. to break a big game vs. the Raiders poor rush defense, but I think it will be Sproles who answers the call, much as Shonn Greene did last week.

Shonn Greene, NYJ - If you were the owner lucky enough to nab Greene off waivers this week (or savvy enough to have already had him), then this week should be a nice flex start for him. Thomas Jones scored 2 times against Miami in their last meeting, but only got about 50 yards. Greene is a more powerful runner and I think he’ll get at least 75-80 yards and a score.

--Wide Receivers--

Michael Sims-Walker, JAX - While Torry Holt is supposed to be the team’s go to receiver, it’s become Walker, who faces the league’s worst pass defense in the Titans.

Kenny Britt/Nate Washington, TEN - On the other side of the field, the Titans face the league’s second worst pass defense in the Jags. You could plug in Justin Gage here as a nice bye week filler, but I think this may be the week the rookie Britt finds the endzone, and he’s readily available in most leagues, as is Washington.

Donnie Avery, STL - He’s available in most leagues and he’s really the Rams only legit receiving threat. The Lions are terrible against the pass, and I think Avery will find the endzone again this week.

Johnny Knox/Earl Bennett, CHI - They face the Browns this week. Is there any better reason to spot start them?

--Tight Ends--

This is an ugly week for top-end TE starters, and guys Antonio Gates and Jason Witten face tough match-ups vs. their position as do Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis.

Bo Scaife, TEN - The Jags haven’t given up much to opposing TEs, but their pass protection is week, and Vince Young could be a wild card this week. He’s worth a spot start.

Kevin Boss, NYG - Boss has been putrid so far this season, but the Eagles have been poor vs. TEs, so Boss may have a chance at redemption this week.

Randy McMichael, STL - The Lions are terrible vs. TEs this season. McMichael has a very opportune match-up. That said, FB/TE Daniel Fells could even be the better option as an endzone target.

Donald Lee, GBP - With Jermichael Finley out, Rodgers will have to turn to Lee as his safety valve. Finley racked up big points vs. the Vikings in their last meeting...

Dustin Keller, NYJ - Like the guys above, statistically he has a very nice match up. He may have the most upside of all of them because he’s heavily targeted by rookie QB Mark Sanchez.

Generally, I always recommend starting your top picks, regardless of match-ups, barring injury, of course. It is obvious that you’ll almost always play guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees. I try to save this list for guys who are not always obvious starts.

Note: This week RBs Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice face stiff match-ups vs. the run. Play at your own risk.

Written by Rustyn Rose @ Top Fantasy Football