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MLB Playoff LDS Preview: Rockies-Phillies

Oct 7, 2009, 3:15 PM UTC

â†µWith the playoffs starting today, we give you a series-by-series LDS breakdown, starting with Game 1 between the Phillies and Rockies, on TBS at 2:37 p.m ET.â†µ

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â†µâ†µThe first game of the day pits the defending World Champions against perhaps the hottest team in the National League. Despite losing its last two games against the Dodgers –- had the Rockies taken both, they would have won the division –- Colorado enters the playoffs with a 20-11 record since September 1. That said, the Rox took advantage of a lot of teams not in the playoff race and were just 3-3 against playoff teams during that span. â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Phillies, with all their struggles this season, head into the playoffs with a better record than last year’s team. The Phils live by the long ball, having hit an NL-best 224 this season. Only the Yankees have hit more (244), and considering the AL has the DH, well, you get the point. The Phillies have a ton of power. And while the Phillies tend to strike out a lot, they were just 12th in the league in punch-outs, with the Rockies getting rung up more times than anyone but Arizona. â†µ

â†µâ†µStarting Pitching:â†µ
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â†µColorado: Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12 3.47), Aaron Cook 11-6, 4.16), Jason Hammel (10-8 4.33)â†µ

â†µâ†µPhiladelphia: Cliff Lee (14-13 3.32), Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32), TBAâ†µ

â†µâ†µThe Rockies starting pitching took a blow when left-hander Jorge De La Rosa was left off the LDS roster with a groin strain. Not only was De La Rosa the Rox top starter in the second half of the season, he’s the only lefty option they had to start against the Phillies left-leaning lineup. The Rockies will throw Jimenez in Game 1, Cook in Game 2 and Hammel in Game 3 in Colorado. Jimenez had 198 strikeouts over 218 innings this season, so look for the Phillies bats to provide even more of a breeze to an already windy day in Philadelphia. The weather could help the Rockies in these afternoon starts, but with rain early in the day and a windy afternoon forecast in Philadelphia, the mid-day sun may not be as much a factor for those at the plate.â†µ

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â†µLee was supposed to be the savior of a woeful starting rotation for Philadelphia early in the season. And just when they traded for Lee, and Pedro Martinez was signed, the rest of the rotation woke up and became the strong suit for the Phillies during the second half of the season. But now the starters again seem to be in a collective funk. Lee, the Game 1 starter, has given up 11 runs on 21 hits in his last three starts, and while he has three complete games since coming over from Cleveland -– in which he allowed just one earned run –- he does have four outings of five or more runs allowed. For a guy who has never pitched in the playoffs, Philadelphia is wondering which Cliff Lee will show up today. â†µ

â†µâ†µCole Hamels has had an up-and-down year as well, looking untouchable one game and pedestrian the next. There’s an attitude around Hamels that makes you think he knew Philly was going to make the playoffs and that he was just ‘working on stuff’ all season. The guy was lights out last year in the playoffs, and was named World Series MVP. Will that guy show up again, or will the 10-11 pitcher who got shelled by Colorado (seven runs on 11 hits in 3.2 innings) to start the season and gave up 13 runs in his last 16.2 innings take the ball in Game 2? For Game 3, the Phillies have listed “TBA”, which means either Joe Blanton or JA Happ. Word is that the Phillies will wait to see if Happ is needed in Games 1 or 2 before they decide. â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:Struggles or not, there is no way you can pick against Lee and Hamels on back-to-back days. â†µ

â†µâ†µBullpen:â†µ
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â†µRockies: Righties Matt Belisle, Jose Contreras, Matt Daley, Rafael Betancourt. Lefties Joe Beimel and Franklin Morales. Closer Huston Street (R).â†µ

â†µâ†µPhillies: Righties Joe Blanton, Pedro Martinez, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrick, Chad Durbin, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson. Lefties JA Happ, Scott Eyre, Antonio Bastardo. â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:There’s no way the Phillies can have an advantage over any bullpen right now. It’s a mess out there. Lidge couldn’t get anyone out all year, and Madson has taken the closer role -– kind of. He struggled for a while earlier in the year, yet when getting the role back late in the season (consider him the chair of this closer- by-committee), he pitched well. Then the Phillies clinched, and he wasn’t needed in big spots anymore. But look at that bullpen and all you see are starters. Other than Madson and Lidge, the Phillies have just one righty who wasn’t a starter at some point in the last two years. Eyre has been hurt, Pedro has been dinged, Myers has been hurt, Bastardo has been hurt and some of those names are replacing other players who would be on the roster but they are hurt. Bastardo is only on the roster because JC Romero and Jamie Moyer both went down with season-ending injuries in the last few weeks. It does not look good out there.â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Rockies have Street, who has been solid this season with 35 saves to just two blown, and 70 strikeouts in 61.2 innings. Betancourt has been lights out in the set-up role since coming over from Cleveland, giving up just five runs in 32 appearances. The most important guy out of the bullpen could be Beimel, the lefty who has faced the Phillies seven times this season, giving up just two runs in eight innings of work.â†µ

â†µâ†µInfield:â†µ
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â†µRockies: Garrett Atkins, Clint Barmes, Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, Jason Giambiâ†µ

â†µâ†µPhillies: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, Greg Dobbs, Miguel Cairoâ†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:The Phillies have the best infield in the National League, and outside of the Bronx, probably the best in all of baseball. Just look at these numbers for Howard (.279/.931 PS/45HR/141RBI/105Runs) and Utley (.282/905/31/93/112), which include a late-season slump for the second baseman. Rollins had a terrible start to the season yet still finished with 100 runs, 77 RBI and 31 steals. Feliz, known more for his glove than his bat, hit .266 with 82 RBI and 62 runs from the seven hole. â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Rockies have some nice players. Tulowitzki is very good, and they seem to love Barmes. Helton is somewhat of a cult hero. But this match-up isn’t close. â†µ

â†µâ†µCatcher:â†µ
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â†µRockies: Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.â†µ

â†µâ†µPhillies: Carlos Ruiz, Paul Bakoâ†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:Rockies get the nod here. Chooch has been good behind the plate for Philly, but he’s been hurt, and frankly, the pitching in late innings has been terrible. Is it fair to put that on the catcher? Eh, probably not. â†µ

â†µâ†µStatistically, the Rockies backstops have been okay at the plate. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies can run on the Rockies, with Iannetta throwing out just 18 batters to 50 steals. Ruiz, for Philly, had just 23 caught to 61 steals. Maybe this should be a push.â†µ

â†µâ†µOutfield:â†µ
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â†µRockies: Brad Hawpe, Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez, Eric Youngâ†µ

â†µâ†µPhillies: Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Ben Francisco, Matt Stairsâ†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:These graphs are getting shorter as this moves along. But there’s no debate here either. The Rockies have a nice outfield. They have a lot of interchangeable parts, so late in the games when double-switching is important, they have guys who can come off the bench and play all fields. â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Phillies have three all-stars in the outfield ... from this season. They have Fransisco off the bench, who came over in the Lee trade, and he can play all fields, pinch hit and pinch run. And Matt Stairs has more pinch-hit home runs than anyone ever.â†µ

â†µâ†µManagers:â†µ
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â†µJim Tracy, Charlie Manuel. â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Tracy has done a wonderful job since taking over the Rockies earlier this season. They would not be a playoff team without him. Manuel won the World Series last year. The man eats for free in this town for life. You can pick against Uncle Cholly, but I never will again.â†µ

â†µâ†µIntangibles:â†µ
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â†µThe early start times will help the Rockies more than the Phillies. The Phils are a big-game team, and 2:37 p.m. isn’t screaming ‘big game.’ But it is the playoffs, and the crowd should be raucous in Philadelphia. The Rockies have their own stadium quirks, but if you want to talk intangibles, you have to start with the fans, and there are 3.6 million reasons why the Citizens Bank Park faithful have been amazing this year. â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:Phillies. â†µ

â†µâ†µPrediction:â†µ
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â†µPhillies in 4. I’m sorry if this seemed a bit Shanoff-Floridaesque. â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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