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MLB Playoff LDS Previews: Dodgers-Cardinals

Oct 7, 2009, 7:10 PM UTC

â†µWith the playoffs starting today, we give you a series-by-series LDS breakdown. Next up is game three of three today, with the Cardinals and Dodgers facing off on TBS at 9:37 p.m. Eastern.â†µ

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â†µâ†µThere are a ton of stars in this year’s playoffs, but none may be more fun to watch than Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez. The Cardinals and Dodgers face off in the late game tonight in what seems to be the most evenly matched first-round series between division champs. Okay, fine, there are only two first-round series between division champs, but this one is clearly more evenly matched.â†µ

â†µâ†µStarting Pitching:â†µ

â†µSt. Louis: Chris Carpenter (17-4 2.24), Adam Wainwright 19-8, 2.63), Joel Pineiro (15-12 3.49)â†µâ†µLA: Randy Wolf (11-7 3.23), Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79), Vicente Padilla (4-0, 3.20)â†µ

â†µâ†µLet’s see, two Cy Young candidates and a 15-game winner against two former Phillies (when they were terrible) and a youngster with a .500 record? I think I know where I’m leaning.â†µ

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â†µCarpenter has been a phenomenal story, losing two years to multiple elbow surgeries and coming back like nothing ever happened. Only Zach Greinke has a lower ERA this season among starters and his 17 wins are tied for fifth in the majors, second in the NL behind only his teammate Wainwright, who goes in Game 2.â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Dodgers have such little faith in their starters, they’re going with Padilla, a mid-season pickup, in Game 3 instead of Chad Billingsley, who they expect to pitch Game 4.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Cardinals, especially in a five-game series.â†µ

â†µâ†µBullpen:â†µ

â†µSt. Louis: Kyle Lohse, John Smoltz, Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, et al.â†µâ†µLA: Jonathan Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, Ronald Belisario, George Sherrill, Jeff Weaver, Jon Garland, Hong-Chic Kuo.â†µ

â†µâ†µNeither of these bullpens should really scare the other team. There are a lot of pitchers on the Dodgers who can throw smoke, most notably Broxton, who has 114 strikeouts in just 76 innings. But Broxton can be gotten to, as he was last year in the playoffs. Not only does St. Louis know that, but so does Joe Torre. Broxton had 36 saves in 42 chances, and you wonder if his playoff leash will be a little shorter.â†µ

â†µâ†µFor the Cardinals, clearly their strength is in the starting rotation. If the Dodgers can knock out one of the starters, they’ll be facing middle relief that is ultimately beatable. Franklin, however, isn’t. While he has blown five saves this year (38 of 43), his ERA is just 1.92. He doesn’t strike a lot of guys out, with just 44 Ks in 61 innings, but he’s effective at the end of games.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Pushâ†µ

â†µâ†µInfield:â†µ

â†µCardinals: Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo, Joe Thurston, Troy Glausâ†µâ†µDodgers: James Loney, Rafael Furcal, Ronnie Belliard, Orlando Hudson, Casey Blake, Jim Thome, Mark Loretta, Juan Castroâ†µ

â†µâ†µAny infield that has the most feared hitter of the last five years has to have the edge. Albert Pujols is a monster. He scares people. He haunts the dreams of children. He hit .327 this season with 47 homers and 135 RBI, 124 runs and an insane OPS of 1.101. That said, the rest of the Cardinals infield isn’t much to be afraid of if you’re Dodgers pitching. Schmuaker (.303) and Ryan (.298) hit a little for average, but no infielder not named Pujols had more than 52 RBI or scored more than 85 runs.â†µ

â†µâ†µDo you get the feeling this Dodgers infield has a lot of potential but won’t ever amount to much? It’s like watching four versions of Tony Clark out there. Loney should be a dominant first baseman in the league, but he hit .281 with just 13 home runs and 90 RBI. His slugging percentage was under .400, 15th in the National League for first basemen. Blake is just ... there -- .280/18/79. The whole infield is just ... there. Hudson actually had the best batting average of any infielder (.283), and he’s riding the pine in favor of the late-acquired Belliard.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Cardinals. Well, Pujols and the other three.â†µ

â†µâ†µCatcher:â†µ

â†µCardinals: Yadier Molina, Jason Larueâ†µâ†µDodgers: Russell Martin, Brad Ausmusâ†µ

â†µâ†µMartin is a good player. He’s a decent catcher, but he’s not a Molina. Well, he’s not Yadier Molina, who had just 32 stolen bases on him while throwing out 22 runners. Martin threw out 33 runners, yet allowed 74 stolen bases. In other words, don’t try to run on Yadier. Add the fact that Molina is catching two Cy Young candidates, and St. Louis seems to constantly resurrect pitchers from the scrap heap, Molina deserves some credit. It can’t all be Dave Duncan.â†µ

â†µâ†µThat said, Molina is hurt, but playing. So look for the Dodgers -- specifically Matt Kemp and Juan Pierre, to try and take advantage.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Cardinalsâ†µ

â†µâ†µOutfield:â†µ

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â†µCardinals: Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, Colby Rasmus, Rick Ankielâ†µâ†µDodgers: Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre, Manny Ramirezâ†µ

â†µâ†µThis is probably the closest matchup of the bunch. Holliday is exactly what the Cardinals needed to help out Pujols in the lineup. In 63 games with St. Louis, he hit .353 with 13 homers and 55 RBI. Ludwick had a solid season, with 97 RBI and 22 homers. Rasmus is a good defender but not much at the plate and Ankiel, well, he needs to find the juice again.â†µ

â†µâ†µWhat the Dodgers infield lacks, their outfield has in droves. Matt Kemp should have been an All-Star and finished the season hitting .297 with 101 RBI, 26 home runs and 97 runs scored. Ethier hit .272 with a team-best 106 RBI and an .869 OPS. And oh yeah, Manny Ramirez is in left. The guy only has 74 RBI, including 28 home runs, in 103 postseason games in his career. In two series with the Dodgers last year, Manny hit .520 with an OPS of 1.745.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Manny and the Dodgersâ†µ

â†µâ†µManagers:â†µ

â†µJoe Torre, Tony La Russa â†µâ†µAdvantage: Torre. If La Russa were going against any other manager in the playoffs, he’d probably win this category. But Torre has, what, 100 World Series titles? I think it’s 100. Besides, I like it when my pitchers bat ninth.â†µ

â†µâ†µIntangibles:â†µ

â†µThe crowd in Los Angeles is more dangerous, but not really more of an advantage. The St. Louis fans are far more supportive of their team. And both teams seemed to have their division wrapped up so early they took most of September off and slumped into the playoffs. The Dodgers were so lax, combined with the Rockies hot play, that they almost lost their division. Which team will be able to flip the switch?â†µâ†µAdvantage:Cardinalsâ†µ

â†µâ†µPrediction:This is hard, because I believe Manny is good enough to pull a team into the second round. But the Cardinals starting pitching is just so good. I predict a five-game series. Coin flip says Cardinals.â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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