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MLB Playoff LDS Previews: Red Sox-Angels

Oct 8, 2009, 3:10 PM UTC

â†µWe’ve had our issues with the way that MLB and TBS set up their schedule and how certain series get less of the spotlight than others. Nobody in the Red Sox-Angels series can complain about that. This series, between the division winner in the American League West and the Wild Card team, gets top TV billing both nights. The most ridiculous fact of having two 9:37 p.m. eastern start times is that Boston and the Angels won’t begin their first playoff game until both National League series have played two. If the Phillies or Dodgers win today, those series could ostensibly be over before one American League series even begins. â†µ

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â†µâ†µTo the breakdown. Unlike the ‘happy to be here’ Twins against the Yankees, both the Red Sox and Angels have a real chance to get to the World Series.â†µ

â†µâ†µStarting Pitching:â†µ

â†µâ†µBoston: Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41), Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86), Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21)â†µ

â†µâ†µLAA: John Lackey (11-8 3.83), Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.75), Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89)â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Angels plan to throw Joe Saunders in Game Four (if necessary), who has gone 7-0 with a 2.55 ERA since coming off the DL in August and is 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. That’s how deep the Angels starting pitching has become. It’s pretty incredible, actually, how both these teams have such outstanding pitching year after year. The Angels picked up Kazmir late in the season for this exact situation, as the lefty has faced the Sox 25 times in his career. â†µ

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â†µWeaver has struggled a bit since the All-Star break, but much like a guy pitching today in Philadelphia, you wonder if he was maybe just 'working on stuff' to get himself set for the playoffs. Game One starter John Lackey has been very good since the break, going 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA, including 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last seven starts. Lackey has that bulldog mentality you want in a playoff pitcher, but he hasn't fared well against Boston. He's 3-9 in 17 games, including 0-2 in three playoff starts against the Sox. And since winning Game Seven of the 2002 World Series, he's 0-3 in his last six playoff starts. â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Red Sox have two great starters in Lester and Beckett. There aren’t too many true aces in baseball, and the Red Sox are one of those teams that can boast two of them. Lester has 225 strikeouts in 203.1 innings this season. Since the end of May, Lester is 12-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 22 starts. And you’d think that the lefty may be at a disadvantage facing an Angels lineup that is so right and switch-hitter dominant, but Lester’s numbers are actually better against hitters from the right side this season. â†µ

â†µâ†µBeckett is one of the best playoff starters in the last 20 years, going 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) in his career, including 96 Ks in 87 innings and a WHIP of 0.943. He struggled in the playoffs last year, but was hurt. Now he’s healthy again, so it will be interesting to see what the Angels can manage against him. Buchholz is the guy seemingly everybody wanted at the trade deadline, but the Red Sox kept him and it’s paid off. He went 4-1 in September with a 2.87 ERA, but he has gotten knocked around in his last two starts of the season, giving up 13 earned runs in just eight innings. After those three, well, that’s really it. Wakefield can’t pitch, and isn’t on the playoff roster. Brad Penny actually had the third-most starts for the Sox this year and they jettisoned him in a waiver deal. Game Four will either be Lester, or Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has been hurt much of the year and has only pitched a few times since the All-Star Break. They might not have any other options.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Push. I know it’s a cop out, but I’d give the clear advantage to the Angels in a seven-game series. That said, in a five-game set, two dominant pitchers is all you need.â†µ

â†µâ†µBullpen:â†µ

â†µâ†µBoston: Paul Byrd, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito, Billy Wagnerâ†µ

â†µâ†µLAA: Ervin Santana, Matt Palmer, Jason Bulger, Darren Oliver, Kevin Jepsen, Brian Fuentes, Sean O’Sullivan, Jose Arredondoâ†µ

â†µâ†µWasn’t there a time earlier in the year that Red Sox fans wanted to trade Papelbon? Thoughts are that Bard is the people’s champ to eventually close out games, especially with Papelbon in line to make a lot more money in the coming years. And the Sox traded for Billy Wagner, which got those rumors going even more. What did they end up with? A bunch of really good arms at the back end of the game. If you add in Saito, the Sox have three closers in their bullpen – or former closers in two cases – and the flamethrower in waiting. â†µ

â†µâ†µThe Angels let K-Rod go after last year and brought in Brian Fuentes, who led the league with 48 saves. Rodriguez would do that nearly every year as well and it doesn’t mean the pitcher is necessarily dominating as much as it means the Angels play in a lot of close games. Oliver is about 50 years old (actually just turned 39 this week) and has pitched a lot this year. So has Bulger, who is averaging more than a strikeout per inning. I almost wrote the line, ‘the Angels have some guys who can get batters out,’ which is a cheap way of saying I have no clue how this bullpen will fare against a lineup like the Red Sox. But they have some guys who can get batters out, so there’s that. I will say this, the Angels starting rotation is so deep they moved Palmer to the pen earlier this year, and he has only given up 15 runs in 53 innings since moving to the bullpen, including two spot starts. That’s not to mention that Ervin Santana is now their long man. â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:Bostonâ†µ

â†µâ†µInfield:â†µ

â†µâ†µSox: Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Casey Kotchman, Chris Woodward, David Ortiz (DH)â†µ

â†µâ†µAngels: Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales, Brandon Wood â†µ

â†µâ†µIs Mike Lowell really healthy going into the playoffs? Will he ever be healthy again in his career? It shouldn’t matter, really, because Kevin Youkilis is so valuable to this team that he could probably play first and third in the same game if need be. Pedroia did score 115 runs this year, but his batting average dropped 30 points and he had fewer RBIs and extra base hits than last year. Maybe he was too busy polishing his MVP trophy. Ortiz is the wild card. He was dreadful to start the season, yet had as good a second half of the year as anyone in the AL. So which Big Papi will they get? If it’s the latter, expect the Sox to win. â†µ

â†µâ†µFiggins is like Youkilis West. He could play anywhere they need him to play and he scored 114 runs and led the team in hits (183) and steals (42). Morales provided the pop, hitting 34 homers and knocking in 108 runs while batting .306. The platooning combination of Izturis and Kendrick made up for basically the same production as Pedroia. And I realize I didn’t mention either shortstop. â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:This is closer than I thought it’d be. Boston.â†µ

â†µâ†µCatcher:â†µ

â†µâ†µRed Sox: Victor Martinez, Jason Varitekâ†µ

â†µâ†µAngels: Mike Napoli, Jeff Mathis â†µ

â†µâ†µAt this point, I’d rather have Tom Berenger behind the dish than Jason Varitek. That’s why the Sox went out and traded for Martinez, who by all accounts, saved their season. In 56 games with Boston, he hit .336 with 41 RBIs. If the Red Sox win the World Series, it’s because of that guy. â†µ

â†µâ†µMike Scioscia always does a great job with his catchers, but Napoli doesn’t have a chance in this matchup.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Bostonâ†µ

â†µâ†µOutfield:â†µ

â†µâ†µSox: Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Rocco Baldelli, Brian Andersonâ†µ

â†µâ†µAngels: Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera, Garry Matthews, Robb Quinlan, Reggie Willits, Vladimir Guerrero (DH)â†µ

â†µâ†µThis one isn’t close. Even without Vlad counting as an outfielder, who clearly isn’t the player he once was, the Angels have an amazing outfield with Hunter, Rivera and Abreu. Abreu is incredible, and at 35 years old, had yet another 100-RBI season, hitting close to .300. Abreu also had 30 steals – the most since his last full year with the Phillies. People think he takes too many pitches and walks too often in RBI situations, but his numbers are near Hall of Fame. Add in Hunter’s .299/22/90 and Rivera’s .287/25/88 this season, and that’s a potent outfield. â†µ

â†µâ†µDon’t get me wrong, the Red Sox are solid out there too. Bay has proven to be as productive in driving in runs as Manny Ramirez, even if his batting average is just .267. Ellsbury has 70 steals in 82 attempts so if he gets on first, most likely he’s on second in a flash. Drew had a typical boring, non-descript J.D. Drew season and Baldelli, who usually platoons with Drew, may not be healthy enough to contribute. â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage:Angelsâ†µ

â†µâ†µManagers:â†µ

â†µâ†µMike Scioscia, Terry Francona â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Push. Both these guys know how to manage. Both have won World Series with their current clubs and they both seem perfect for their bunch of guys. â†µ

â†µâ†µIntangibles:â†µ

â†µâ†µFenway Park is always a great home-field advantage for the Sox. But more than anything, you’d have to wonder if the Red Sox are in the heads of the Angels a little bit. In the last three times the teams have played in the playoffs – all since 2004 – the Angels have only had one victory. A four-game series loss last year, with home field, following sweeps in 2007 and 2004. It has to be in their head.â†µ

â†µâ†µAdvantage: Red Soxâ†µ

â†µâ†µPrediction:Despite leaning heavy toward Boston on nearly every category – other than my few cop-out pushes – I think this series could be very close, with some really great games that may go down to the wire or even sneak into extra innings. I’ll take Boston in four. â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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