Nate Silver, the man who created PECOTA and correctly predicted the way 49 of the 50 states would vote in the 2008 presidential election, has taken his math wizardry to the world of futbol with his Soccer Power Index.
Soccer Power Index: Nate Silver’s Newest Project
↵↵The SPI rating is designed to provide the best possible objective representation of a team’s current overall skill level. In particular, the SPI ratings are intended to be forward-looking: They measure a team’s relative likelihood of victory if a competitive match were to be held tomorrow. This concept may differ somewhat from a retrospective or backward-looking ratings system. The SPI ratings are not trying to reward or punish teams based on their past results; rather, they are trying to predict which teams will have the most success going forward.
↵↵There’s a whole big formula behind it, but let’s just jump ahead to the results, where (surprise!) Brazil is the No. 1 team. The United States checks in at No. 14. Silver’s real test, of course, will come next summer, when 63 matches at the World Cup will determine the accuracy of his new mathematical system.
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