Kevin Pelton over at Basketball Prospectus breaks down the news that the Hornets have fired Byron Scott:
Basketball Prospectus Reacts To Scott Firing
When a team goes from 56-26 and a couple of shots away from the Western Conference Finals to a laughingstock within two years, there is plenty of blame to go around. […] There are plenty of explanations that can be offered in Scott’s defense. The Hornets’ wing positions have atrophied over the last two years, with Peja Stojakovic aging in dog years, Morris Peterson struggling to live up to the mid-level deal he signed with New Orleans prior to the 2007-08 season and Rasual Butler now with the Clippers, a victim of the Hornets’ high payroll. Injuries haven’t helped. Emeka Okafor missed all of training camp, making it difficult to get him comfortable in the system and with his teammates (surely part of the reason New Orleans is a dismal 28th in the league in Defensive Rating), and Ike Diogu has yet to play.
Ultimately, though, Scott sealed his own fate with his reluctance to trust young players. Part of an optimistic assessment of the Hornets in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10 was the belief that Bower had upgraded the team’s bench by signing Diogu, trading for Darius Songaila and drafting Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. Though Diogu has been unable to play, Collison and Thornton have been biding their time on the bench. Instead, the Browns–Bobby and Devin–have been given entirely too many minutes. Bobby Brown has the team’s second-highest usage rate (26.2 percent of possessions while on the floor) despite a dismal 44.4 percent True Shooting Percentage. All of that is consistent with his miserable rookie season split between Sacramento and Minnesota. Why was he playing over Collison, the Hornets’ NBA-ready first-round pick?
All good stuff. While Scott certainly wasn’t handed a top roster, especially considering the way the NBA’s elite reloaded this offseason, the Hornets shouldn’t be this bad. Steve Nash seemed dead-on when he observed after yesterday’s blowout win over New Orleans that the Hornets just seemed to lack the same “energy and belief” that they have had in previous seasons. And, as Pelton explains, that is attributable to coaching:
Add in the fact that New Orleans apparently quit on Scott–as first witnessed by their unthinkable 44-point loss to Denver in Game 4 of last year’s playoff series, which probably should have signaled the end of Scott’s run as head coach–and a change on the sidelines was long overdue.
While there is something to be said for seeking stability on the bench, there are times when a coach simply loses the players. When this happens, the situation is unsalvageable.
The Hornets seemed to reach that point with Scott by the end of last year, and were continuing on the same downward path through the first nine games this season. A fresh voice could motivate them to get back on track.
The bottom line for the Hornets? Firing Scott now at least gives them hope for the rest of the year:
We have little idea of Bower’s Xs and Os ability, and I would certainly feel more comfortable if Floyd was not prominently involved. However, one consistent trait when GMs are asked to coach their own teams is that they tend to play guys they’ve drafted. If Bower simply does that, the Hornets have a chance to get better. I still believe there’s enough talent on the roster–if only because of Chris Paul, who is having an MVP season–to not only make the playoffs but contend in the Western Conference. Last year’s study of midseason coaching changes showed they were best done by past playoff teams early in the season. By making a move now, New Orleans has given itself a chance to right the ship before it’s too late.
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