Week 15 Fantasy Q&A Mailbag: Playoff Strategy Changes Or Status Quo?

Q: Every year I struggle with my playoff strategy...do I play the guys who got me there or do I tinker and find guys on my bench and the wire with good matchups? - Andrew

A: You know the old saying, “Dance with the girl you brought to the dance.” Let me be clear when I tell you, it does not apply in fantasy football. Are you going to bench guys like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or Chris Johnson? Of course not. Never. But everyone has a horse or two that contributed mightily to a playoff season that could be benched in the playoffs. Remember, there is a whole season’s worth of evidence on file to help you make your decisions in Week 15. If a team is last in passing defense, it is a truly honest ranking. If a team is tops in the league in rushing, it means a lot. So your roster decisions have to take this into account. Case in point: The Redskins played the Raiders and their 30th-ranked pass defense last week and owners were faced with the prospect of picking up Quinton Ganther or going with the running backs they already had. In the end, Ganther outperformed guys like DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, LaDainian Tomlinson, to name but a few. Andrew, I am willing to bet that if you made the playoffs, you made a few good decisions along the way this season. To win in the playoffs, you have to also make a few key decisions.

Q: I have two great defenses and one pretty good defense: Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Between this week and next week, there are two games where two of these teams will face each other. Would you start two good defenses when they are playing against each other? - Ryan

A: This is a great question because it serves as a reminder of how important it is to survey the schedule before and during your league’s draft. While not as egregious as drafting 4-5 stud players all sharing the same bye week, drafting defenses that live in such close proximity to each other in the playoff season is very dangerous. A perfect example: Eagles and Giants last Sunday night. Both defenses have been exceptional this season (the Giants more so at the outset than lately.) If a team was lucky enough to have them both all season, I would bet it was a strength. If that same team started both defenses on Sunday night, it is probably out of the playoffs now. In the playoffs, I would avoid starting two defenses in the same game--unless it is during a crazy, ridiculous snowstorm or fog. Spread your playoff eggs around a little better.

Q: In my league I was the #6 seed and I played the #3 seed. We tied! I won the tiebreaker based on my bench having more points and our league is in an uproar (over this tie-break method.) What would you rule as commissioner in this scenario? - Don

A: The bench scoring is a very standard tie-breaker and should not be the cause of any great uproar Don, but there are other ways that are both more fun AND make the fantasy owner think a little. By the way, some leagues grant the higher seed the tiebreak due to the higher seeding--I consider this to be unacceptable. If you are not happy with basing your tiebreaker on bench scoring, consider these two alternatives:

1) At your league’s draft, identify a position--preferably the highest scoring one, like a quarterback, and set the tiebreaker to whomever has the best score from their starting quarterback; or

2) Prior to each game, have each team designate a “Tiebreaker” player on their bench. In the unlikely event of a tie, this player’s score would determine the outcome of the game.

Q: I am in a keeper league (can keep up 7 players). Kevin Smith is on my roster and his knee injury against the Ravens has me thinking he might not be the keeper he was just one week ago. Your thoughts? - Pearson

A: Yeah, it was a serious injury. The start of the 2010 season is in doubt for this guy. My advice would probably be to drop him now, and get someone who can help in the playoffs. Chances are you will be able to draft him next season with a lower pick than he would otherwise deserve. Take a chance on keeping a guy who will hit the ground running hard next season and make Smith a risky draft pick for yourself next summer.