Arbitration Deadline Passes; Let the Deals Begin

And then there’s the whole list of players who were not ranked as Type A-or-B free agents, which does not preclude their former team from still offering arbitration, even though the offer gets them nothing in the form of compensation should the player decline. Just 23 were offered arbitration by yesterday’s deadline, and Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Andy Pettitte were not among them. Damon, the lone Type-A free agent of the bunch, was not offered because, well, he probably would have accepted the offer.

In this economy, the issue with most of the free agents not offered arbitration was the fact that they might actually accept. This is the equivalent of inviting 20 extra people to your wedding just for the gifts, knowing they won’t show up ... but what if there is nothing else better to do that night and they do show up? What then?

The fact of the matter is that teams had ample time to work out deals with their players while they were still under contract. In most cases, they likely failed to do so because the team didn’t want to pay the player what the market would bear. Players like Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa were offered arbitration because several teams had shown interest, including the team for which they most recently played, the St. Louis Cardinals. If either of those players accept arbitration (players have until December 7th to decide) a deal will likely be worked out before getting to any hearing. Other players, like John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Jason Bay, were offered arbitration because no matter how high the price tag is, a player at that level -- especially a front-line starting pitcher or one of the most productive position players available -- would be worth giving up a first-round pick to the team who signs them.

Which is why the Dodgers not offering arbitration to Type-A free agent Randy Wolf was so surprising. Wolf will assuredly get offers from other teams, and if you look at the makeup of the Dodgers staff, having Wolf back in the fold were he to accept arbitration would not be the worst thing for the team. It seemed to be a win-win for the Dodgers, yet they elected to let Wolf go test the market without any tags.

It was also notable that Type-A free agents like Placido Polanco and Miguel Tejada were not offered arbitration. The Tigers and Astros both had to think that the interest would dissipate if a team had to fork over a first-rounder for a middle infielder in his mid-30s. Even with a good amount of interest from other teams in a player like Polanco, the chance that he’d accept the offer was not financially viable for the Tigers.

What was once a protective measure for teams -- saddling top free agents with penalty draft picks -- has now become cost-prohibitive. Darren Oliver had one of the best seasons of his career, but the lefty reliever is 39 years old and the Angels were concerned that his numbers would land him a bigger contract in 2010 through arbitration than he could have signed on the open market. The same obviously goes for a player like Vlad Guerrero, who was listed as a Type-B but wasn’t offered arbitration. Much like Damon and Matsui, the fear was that an older player would get far more money in arbitration for one year than in the open market, and the Angels didn’t want to run the risk of Vlad accepting and being stuck with his declining skills and hefty price tag.

Again, not offering a player does not preclude the team from him back. We know that Andy Pettitte will likely return to the Yankees for a lesser deal or retire. The same goes for Phillies reliever Scott Eyre. And, as we learned late last night, saddling an aging player with Type-A status does not preclude teams from still overpaying, as reports are that the Braves have signed Billy Wagner to be their closer in 2010, giving up not just $7-million dollars to the 38-year old coming off Tommy John surgery, but also handing over their first-rounder (20th overall) in the deal.

Essentially, the Red Sox rented Wagner for two months by giving up two prospects -- 2004 17th-round pick Chris Carter, who was called up twice last season, and Eddie Lora, an undrafted free agent signing in 2006 -- and ended up with the Braves’ first-round pick and a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. Add to that fact that by offering arbitration to Bay, the Red Sox will get a first-rounder and a sandwich pick back for him -- they’d lose their own first-rounder if they were to sign Holliday to replace Bay, but would still come out with the extra sandwich pick -- and I’d say Theo Epstein wins the day.

While most big names aren’t expected to sign until early 2010, now the deals can begin in earnest.

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