Week 13 Start/Sit: Time To Get Lucky

All season long, I have tried to offer start or sit recommendations that were not blatantly obvious. Hopefully, on one or more occasions, you found yourself taking a gamble on one my picks. Hopefully, I did not cost you any money. In the last week of most fantasy regular seasons, it is as important as ever to put a lineup on the field that is going to work for whatever your goal is:

Safe: If you are basically assured of the playoffs, barring an insane turn of events, don’t open yourself up to the worst-case scenario. Play the safe defense (and only one), the receivers and running backs who you know will get some action, and the quarterback who you think is most likely to get you an average week (you never know when a guy like Manning or Favre is going to get a second half off from here on out.)

Outside-looking-in: If you are the team needing a miraculous finish, make sure you take every gamble on your bench. If you have two semi-decent defenses, put them both out there (in most leagues the defenses are high risk/high reward fantasy players). Take a gamble on bench players who have the chance to go big, even if they aren’t listed as the starters (Larry Johnson, Matt Leinart, Jerious Norwood, etc.)

Here are my low-on-the-radar picks I get a warm and fuzzy feeling about going into Week 13:

Start

Kyle Orton, QB DEN - The Chiefs have allowed five 300-yard passing performances and seven multiple touchdown performances this season. Orton continues to nurse an ankle injury but should be able to find himself capable of solid fantasy numbers against Kansas City. The Broncos have had an extra few days of rest since they last played on Thanksgiving, so this is the time to bet on your Broncos players.

Laurence Maroney, RB NE- You might be tempted to leave him on your bench since he does lose carries in that offense thanks to his fumble problems. He has lost some trust on that team. But in his last 6 games, Maroney has 8 touchdowns. And this week’s opponent--Miami--is without Jason Ferguson for the season now, which has drastically affected the Dolphins’run defense. Even with slightly less than the full load, Maroneyshould be a good gamble with a lot of upside this week.

Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI- The rookie has stepped up this season and contributed. Now it looks like he will be asked to do even more as DeseanJackson will be sidelined with his concussion. Something about the Eagles offense results in their speed receivers running downfield alone on a regular basis. Donovan McNabb is excellent at getting the ball downfield to them so look for Maclin to make some noise on a few big plays against the mediocre pass defense of the Falcons.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE MIN- As the season winds down and the good teams start thinking conservatively when it comes to protecting their older (ancient) quarterbacks. If the Vikings don’t just flat-out bench Favre early in the second half against the Cardinals (assuming the game is in hand), look for them to lean heavily on the short passing game to keep Favre from being subjected to haymakers.

Chicago Bears, DEF- This unit has underperformed all year. Yet, when it matters most to the fantasy world, they draw the St. Louis Rams. Steven Jackson has a dinged up back, and Kyle Boller is under center for the woeful Rams. This is my three-snaps-in-a-circle pick of the week.

Sit

Here are a few guys you might consider benching--despite the fact they may be in line for a decent performance:

Vince Young, QB TEN- This is exactly the kind of quarterback you want to roll the dice with at this time of year. And yet, all I can think about is last year when Sage Rosenfelswas cruising with the Texans and he gave the game away to the Colts in the 4th quarter when it seemed almost impossible to do. The Colts defense is one of the most opportunistic units in the league. They get sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns--all just when they seem to need it most. I am not ready to bet on the Colts this weekend, but I am ready to bet that Vince Young comes down to Earth a little bit.

Brandon Jacobs, RB NYG - He figures to get all the carries for the G-men this week against Dallas. But he has simply not been all that effective as of late. He has only one TD in his last four games. And the Cowboys have not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. If you need a big day from a running back on Sunday, Jacobs might not be the answer.

Chris Chambers, WR KC- Chambers has been a stud from the moment he stepped onto the field for the Chiefs. He has racked up 17 receptions, 319 yards, and 3 TD’s in his short stint in Kansas City. His reward: Champ Bailey. He will draw one of the game’s best cover guys this week and it should be enough to silence him considerably.

Jeremy Shockey, TE NO- The Redskins boast the #1 pass defense in the league. They have only let one tight end all season to get quality fantasy production--Tony Gonzalez in Week 9. The Saints are rocking multiple tight ends on the field now, with three in the fold. Add to that Shockeyhas simply not been cutting the mustard in the last month or so (9 catches for 100 yards in the last 4 games.)

Miami Dolphins, DEF - After the Patriots got beaten by the Colts, they unleashed an assault on the Jets. Coming off the throttling they took from New Orleans, I expect the New England offense to respond again with a beat-down. As I mentioned above, the Dolphins are without Jason Ferguson which has caused their run defense to suffer. I fear a long day is in store for the boys in aqua and orange.