Playoff Odds Against Montreal, Calgary and Washington

One longtime lament of NHL fans has been the interminable length of the regular season and the Stanley Cup playoffs. But if this year’s first results hold to form, we could be looking at the quickest first round in recent memory. Overall, six of the eight first round playoff series feature teams leading 2-0 or more. Monday night’s schedule features three games in which teams have their last realistic opportunity to change the momentum and avoid making a quick exit.
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↵While few observers expected the Montreal Canadiens to put up much of a fight against the Boston Bruins, the top seed in the Eastern Conference, in their first round matchup, it’s clear that an early exit may very well spell the end of Bob Gainey’s tenure as head coach and general manager.
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Montreal will catch a bit of a break because Bruins winger Milan Lucic will be out of the lineup thanks to a suspension for cross-checking Maxim Lapierre in the closing minutes of Game Two. But after seeing the Canadiens drop Games One and Two by a combined score of 9-3, it’s hard to see how they might actually be able to fight their way back into the series outside of getting an outstanding performance out of their starting goalie -- whoever that might be at this point after two weak outings by Carey Price with Jaroslav Halak doing some mop up duty at the end of Game Two. As of Monday morning, Gainey had yet to name a starter for Game Three, not that it’s going to matter all that much.
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↵The story is a tad different in Calgary, where the Flames, also down 2-0, will take to home ice against Chicago. But while the Bruins made quick work of the Canadiens in Games One and Two of their series, with a few luckier bounces, the Flames could very well be the team with the 2-0 lead.
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↵In both games in Chicago, the veteran Flames held leads of 2-1 and 2-0 over the Blackhawks, only to falter in the end by identical scores of 3-2, with their Game One loss coming in OT. That’s hardly what anyone projected going into the series, where most expected a veteran Flames team to physically dominate the young Blackhawks and throw them off their game. So far, it hasn’t happened, as the youthful and energetic Blackhawks have shown all the guts they needed in authoring a pair of comeback wins.
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↵Another situation that looks desperate is the Rangers-Caps series, where the unheralded No. 7 seed holds a 2-0 advantage after winning a pair of games in Washington. The why is awfully simple: New York head coach John Tortorella has his team playing solid playoff hockey of the sort that’s disrupted Washington’s vaunted offense. Name the hockey fundamental, and the Rangers hold the advantage, whether you’re talking about blocked shots, getting to loose pucks or battling along the boards.
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↵So who has the best chance to turn it around? If you take a look at the historical perspective, it’s the Caps who still have a puncher’s chance of victory. According to the online database, Who Wins, an online archive of playoff series from all four major North American sports, teams that win the first two games of a playoff series at home have gone on to win the series 55 out of 61 times (.902 winning percentage) -- a number that would seem to suggest that the Flames and Canadiens are doomed.
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↵Conversely, that same archive tells us that teams that win the first two games of a playoff series on the road have gone on to win the series on 15 of 22 occasions -- a .682 winning percentage -- which would indicate that it’s too early to write off Washington completely.↵