Paul, James Underpaid; In Other News, the Sun Came Up Again Today

Ordinarily, I don’t like quibbling with—or maybe picking on—Dave Berri. The author of the illustrious Wages of Win, which sold poorly, angered many people and yet somehow helped bring advanced basketball statistics to a wider audience, has no common sense. ↵
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↵As far as I can tell, he only cares about numbers, doesn’t watch basketball and refuses to exercise any common sense he may have. This is, of course, the opposite of all the good stats folks who know how to tell a patently absurd conclusion from an eye-opening one. Berri, he just follows the numbers and tunes out all else.↵
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↵However, the off-season is slow, and Berri’s just unleashed one of those monstrously stupid slabs of WoW-aganda that practically demands a response. Even if that’s exactly what he’s trying to provoke, since his theories are designed as much to incite as they are to help us better understand and judge basketball. ↵
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↵Thus, without further waiting, here are my very pithy feelings on his “The Underpaid and Overpaid in 2008-09.“↵
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↵First, the underpaid, an uncharacteristically upbeat way for Berri to kick off a column. Maybe I’m biased, but Berri often strikes me as the stats’ communities answer to the prophetic tradition. Which is to say, he whines and wails about how awful things are, offers a ridiculous version of how they should be, and for some reason catches the ear of the king (in this case, Malcolm Gladwell and other smart people who like hoops). ↵
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↵Berri likes milk on his cereal and is here to tell you that Chris Paul and LeBron James are underpaid. Never mind that Paul was in the final year of his rookie contract and James makes the league max. According to Berri’s matrix, they were worth X amount of dollars to their respective teams, and the salaries don’t match up. We then find out that a bunch of other young players, like Durant and Horford, also get a raw deal, as well as Wade and Dwight Howard. ↵
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Berri is generous enough to blame these realities on ... reality. Namely, the limits placed on contracts, and the structures of rookie deals. I’m not exactly pro-owner, but suffice it to say that the NBA’s salary cap and draft contracts are part of the basic infrastructure of the league. ↵
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↵Should LeBron get unlimited cash? That was called Kevin Garnett’s contract, and it nearly brought down the league. Rookies paid on a case-by-case basis? Welcome to that baseball kid who might get paid like a Hall of Famer before he’s played a single game.↵
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↵If Berri is simply pointing out that some rookies end up being a bargain and that some max players are better than other, then good for him. However, this is so obvious, it’s silly to think anyone needed a column about it. Since Berri’s practically immune to context, I can only guess he doesn’t care that the mini-max is allowing players like Paul and Bron to game the system. You know, since that’s actually about compensation, not an abstract sense of “worth” that for some reason he’s translated into dollars.↵
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↵The list of the overpaid is even less helpful. Guess what? Jermaine O’Neal is overpaid. O’Neal is the third-highest-paid player in the league, but is a broken man of limited usefulness. Iverson, long the fly in Berri’s ointment, as well as the fly in the ointment of those who seek to engage him, is off the hook because his deal’s over. O’Neal is fading fast; Iverson is perceived to be. Strangely, McGrady doesn’t make an appearance, even though he’s the No. 1 salary for 2009-10 and is an even more dramatic cast than O’Neal.↵
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↵So hey, if a one-time All-Star gets old or ages prematurely due to injury, he can be a terrible contract. General managers, beware important players getting injured or signing guys who might be wearing down by the end of their deal. No matter how badly you need them in the present tense. ↵
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↵Berri offers up Andrea Bargnani, Al Thornton and Spencer Hawes as players who “could rise up and take a future MOP title” in 2011. Ummm, okay. I don’t see Thornton cashing in, and it seems a little premature to think that the Kings will throw money at Hawes or he won’t improve and earn it. I know, the esoteric methods of Hawes have foretold all this already; I just find it a little strange to assess their potential to be overpaid when they’re still developing as players (and finding their place on their developing teams).↵
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↵Bargnani, maybe. He’s getting a lot, doesn’t produce consistently, and doesn’t excel at the stuff Berri values (yes, I know a thing or two about win shares). I will therefore end it on something we can all agree on: two years from now, we may see Nani as overpaid. The good news is, by then LeBron’s salary should eat up the entire cap for the Cavs.
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