Awards season exposes one of the most enduring rifts in the baseball community: that between traditionalists who love RBIs, batting average and ERA, and the SABR crowd who clamor for people to pay attention to VORP, WARP, and ERA+. This year is no different.
Tampa Bay Rays’ Jeff Niemann
SB Nation blog DRaysBay takes exception with Jon Heyman for listing Tigers phenom Rick Porcello at the top of his AL Rookie of the Year ballot, and leaving off the vastly under-appreciated Jeff Nieman. From DRaysBay:
Ok, so I can’t leave these numbers out even though they won’t help Niemann’s case. While Niemann isn’t as good as his 3.67 ERA, his FIP is still above average. Both have weak K/9’s, but Niemann’s is nearly a full K better. Niemann sports a better K/BB and a shinny HR/9 of 0.87. Their BABIP’s are near washes so “luck” isn’t a factor in the ERA difference. Last, but not least, Niemann has been worth a full win more than Porcello.
Sure, Porcello is a 20-year-old, and going forward I’d take Porcello over Niemann 100 out of 100 times. But it’s not the Rookie of the Year who’s going to be better in the future award. For those who point out the age difference, please remember that Ichiro was named AL ROY.
For the SABR uniniated, FIP is “fielding independent pitching” and BABIP is “batting average on balls in play”. FIP takes into account the number of walks, striketouts and home runs a pitcher gives up - the “three true outcomes” that the pitcher is solely responsible for - and spits out what the pitcher’s ERA would be independent of the defense playing behind him. BABIP looks at the total number of balls in play, and how many of them get turned into hits.
Both stats peer under the hood of a pitcher’s ERA and help determine how much of it is due to a strong supporting cast and pure luck. Considering these more advanced metrics, it seems fairly clear that Niemann has had a better year than Porcello. But Porcello plays on a winning team. And to writers like Heyman, that’s all that matters. I love the Baseball Writers of America.
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