We're rounding turn three of our FIVE part ‘Sizing up the Chase" series on Ranting and Raving today. As explained in previous entries, this series will explain who has the inside track towards winning this year's Chase for the Cup. Today, "Sizing Up" analyzes positions 6-4 of my predicted Chase final standings. As always, comments and counter-analysis is always appreciated.
Sizing up the Chase: Turn Three
Read on after the jump.
6. Mark Martin, 4 Wins, 14 Top 10s, Average Finish: 15.6
Every season-ending Chase has one major surprise. 2005 shut out defending champion Kurt Busch, 2006 saw six-race winner Kasey Kahne flunk through the final ten and 2008 witnessed Kyle Busch decimate the regular season only to finish in the back of last year’s pack. This year, Mark Martin becomes the latest statistic. There is no logic behind this other than the history of Championships past. Someone has to bite the bullet and Mark Martin is our guy. Mark finishes sixth. Sorry.
5. Carl Edwards, 0 Wins, 11 Top 10s, Average Finish: 14.0
Entering Speedweeks at Daytona, Carl Edwards was the universal no. 1 pick to win the Sprint Cup. With zero wins and just enough solid consistency to sneak into the Chase, Edwards clearly missed the memo. Edwards should benefit from the vast amount of superspeedways that litter the Chase. In addition, Cousin Carl should win at Fontana placing him just within striking distance of the Chase leaders. That should be as close as he gets as Carl will falter back into the model of consistency over the final six. Carl Edwards finishes fifth.
4. Denny Hamlin, 2 Wins, 14 Top 10s, Average Finish: 12.2
Denny Hamlin clearly is not my favorite to win the Chase (that comes on Sunday morning) but he should be. With that said, I’m placing the Dark Horse tag on the Joe Gibbs # 11 wheelman. Hamlin is experiencing his best season since 2006, which coincidentally was a season in which Hamlin also won two and finished third in the Chase. Expect a similar pattern in 2009. Hamlin will not win any Chase races but will constantly finish in the top five. He’ll be close but no cigar -- Hamlin finishes fourth.
Tomorrow: Turn four and a MattHaggard swerve!
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