General

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Doing the Math

Sep 22, 2009, 6:55 PM UTC

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â†µWeâ†µare fickle people, us boxing heads, and now, having worshipped at theâ†µaltar of Manny Pacquiao for most of the year, we find ourselves in aâ†µplace that few anticipated. I certainly did not. I went into theâ†µMayweather/Marquez fight confident that Floyd would win and that heâ†µwould do it convincingly. I did not, however, for a moment expect thatâ†µhe would do it so convincingly that in the aftermath we wouldâ†µhave reason to doubt whether we were even interested in aâ†µMayweather/Pacquiao superfight at all.
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â†µBut that is where we are.â†µWhether you buy it or not, there’s at least an argument to be made onâ†µthat score, and it’s being made all over the internet. Pacquiao foughtâ†µMarquez twice and both times they were essentially ties. In the firstâ†µfight Pac scored three touchdowns in the first two minutes of the gameâ†µand Marquez came back to tie the game with a series of field goals overâ†µthe next 58. In the second fight, they matched each other touchdown forâ†µtouchdown the entire game and according to the judges Pacquiao kicked aâ†µfield goal with time running out. All we can conclude from this is thatâ†µthe two teams are dead even.
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â†µThis past Saturday night, Floydâ†µbeat up on Marquez like the Niners beat the Chargers that one Superâ†µBowl where Steve Young threw about nineteen touchdown passes to Jerryâ†µRice and assorted members of Jerry Rice’s family. He beat Marquez likeâ†µthe Steelers playing a Div 1-A team.
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Andâ†µso, by the commutative property, this equation is now on the table:â†µMayweather > Marquez (by like infinity), Marquez = Pacquiao (give orâ†µtake), therefore Mayweather > Pacquiao (by like infinity).
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â†µEvenâ†µtaking into account the weight issue, I still think it’s reasonableâ†µthat people are drawing such a conclusion. The only concrete way weâ†µhave to assess fighters who haven’t fought each other is to look at howâ†µthey’ve done against similar opponents.
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â†µBut if we’re going to doâ†µthat, we have to bring the same method of inspection to Floyd andâ†µManny’s other two common opponents, De La Hoya and Hatton.
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â†µHattonâ†µto my mind is a push. Yes Pacquiao blew him out of the arena, but thatâ†µis the way Pacquiao fights. Floyd never blows anyone out of the arena.â†µI have a feeling that if Floyd were fighting, I don’t know, Alfonsoâ†µGomez, he would take a couple of rounds to get his rhythm. Floydâ†µdominated Hatton and then knocked him out with a devastating shot. Thatâ†µPacquiao did it quicker does not earn him any style points in my book.
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â†µDeâ†µLa Hoya, however, is a different story. It is without question thatâ†µOscar gave Floyd some problems, particularly early in the fight. Thoseâ†µproblems to my eyes were merely a question of Oscar’s size. I don’tâ†µremember the unofficial weights that night, but I do recall that theâ†µfight looked like a middleweight fighting a welter. And I rememberâ†µseeing a look in Floyd’s eyes early on that I haven’t seen there veryâ†µoften, a look not of fear exactly, but definitely of concern. Oscar wasâ†µjumping on him and trying to mug him in there with his sheer mass, andâ†µthe advantage that he had in the mass department made it briefly seemâ†µlike it might be a doable venture.
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â†µOf course, it wasn’t in theâ†µend. Floyd got his bearings, and Oscar lost heart, wearied of chasingâ†µFloyd around and eating potshots as his reward for trying to close theâ†µdistance. As I wrote at the time of the fight, “at the very point atâ†µwhich Joe Frazier used to SERIOUSLY start to stalk his prey, Oscarâ†µeffectively gave up.” He got himself a split decision for his effortsâ†µthat I thought was highly dubious - I don’t have my scorecard on hand,â†µbut in my memory I scored it 8-4 in rounds for Floyd, and I thought Iâ†µwas being generous to Oscar with that.
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â†µPacquiao, though, neededâ†µno scorecards with De La Hoya. He blew him out of the arena too,â†µembarrassed him, made him quit on his stool and then made him quitâ†µforever.
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â†µThe disparity between Manny and Floyd’s performancesâ†µagainst Oscar is not quite so great as the one between theirâ†µperformances against Marquez. But they’re definitely in the sameâ†µballpark. And if, as I am inclined to do, one is going to explain thatâ†µdisparity away for one fight based on the weight issue, then we have toâ†µbe prepared to do the same for the other. I fully believe that Floydâ†µhad a tougher time with Oscar than Pacquiao did because he was fightingâ†µhim at a weight at which Oscar was comfortable. I am quite sure that ifâ†µFloyd had fought the version of De La Hoya that Manny did at 147 (or inâ†µOscar’s case 145) pounds, he would have schooled him like he didâ†µMarquez.
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â†µBut there is no question that the same is true of theâ†µMarquez comparison. Pacquiao had more troubles with Marquez because heâ†µwas fighting him at the weight that Marquez’s body is right for. Whatâ†µwould happen if the 130-pound Mayweather of ten years ago fought theâ†µ130-pound Marquez of March, 2008? Well, it’s hard to say. I tend toâ†µthink that Floyd would still win, and still win pretty easily. I justâ†µthink Marquez sets up very well for him irrespective of weight. But Iâ†µcertainly think it would be a closer contest than the one we sawâ†µSaturday night.
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â†µFinally, we have to face the fact that theâ†µboxing commutative property never has been anything but a parlor game,â†µand is far, far from being an immutable law. We have recent, shockingâ†µevidence of this in the sequence of Margarito > Cotto, Cotto >â†µMosley (barely) and therefore… no. It didn’t work out. Mosley >â†µMargarito (by a lot) and we’re back to the drawing board.
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â†µThenâ†µthere’s the most famous example of the flawed equation: Frazier = Ali,â†µForeman > Frazier (by a LOT) and therefore… The Rumble in the Jungleâ†µand the world-shocking and whatnot.
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â†µStill, I think even if we’reâ†µgoing to play the commutative property game with Mayweather andâ†µPacquiao right now, we have to have longer memories and consider De Laâ†µHoya as well as Marquez as our test examples. If we deem one of theseâ†µcases to be invalid due to questions of weight, then we must do theâ†µsame with the other.
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â†µWhere it comes out, for me, is that I’mâ†µstill VERY interested in Pacquiao vs. Mayweather, granted of courseâ†µthat Pac beats Cotto, which maybe we are right in thinking today isâ†µeven a bigger “if” than we did a week ago. That said, if Pac does beatâ†µCotto, however he does it, the Mayweather fight will seem even more ofâ†µan imperative. Shane Mosley makes a compelling case on his own behalfâ†µfor the Floyd fight, and he may be able to beat either Pacquiao orâ†µMayweather. I myself think how he would fare against Pacquiao wouldâ†µdepend on the weight - 140 seems to me too low for a 38-year-old manâ†µwho has looked more than comfortable in the past at 154. Mayweather…â†µright now I admit that I think Mayweather could handle Sugar Shane withâ†µconviction.
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â†µBut here’s the fact - Pacquiao and Mayweather areâ†µthe two biggest names in the sport and the two guys that are vying forâ†µthe pound-for-pound title out there in the world. Mayweather isâ†µundefeated. Pacquiao is on a breathtaking run of dominance. Inâ†µconclusion, though I see why many are balking at the matchup in theâ†µaftermath of the Mayweather/Marquez rout, I’m still very much of theâ†µopinion that the most interesting fight in boxing right now is Pac andâ†µMoney, and I very much hope it happens.
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â†µProvided, of course, that Pacquiao beats Cotto…â†µ