Underrated Key To Tonight’s Game: Bench Play

We all know about the stars (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant), the sidekicks (Pau Gasol, Shaquille O’Neal, Mo Williams before his injury, Ron Artest) and the coaches (Phil Jackson, Mike Brown). Looking for something different to talk about?

Look no further than bench play. Those minutes in the second quarter and the end of the third quarter/beginning of the fourth quarter matter just as much as those at the end of the game. We may forget about them, but they’re essential. Who has the advantage?

Normally, the Cavaliers, by a mile. Cleveland’s bringing three starters from last year’s 66-win team off the bench this year (Delonte West, Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas). Throw in free agent pickup Jamario Moon and role-playing starters Anthony Parker and J.J. Hickson, and the Cavs have a nine-man rotation that can play any style, match up to any team and wear you down slowly, but surely.

That’s exactly what happened last time these teams played. Cleveland’s bench outscored LA’s bench 31-17, and it was more than scoring. The Cavs brought in Ilgauskas to give them size against LA’s imposing front line and played Moon significant minutes to help out on Kobe. It worked, tremendously.

But Cleveland’s bench is going to be depleted tonight. Mo Williams is already injured, which thrusts West into the starting lineup and little-used Daniel Gibson back into the rotation he fell out of several weeks ago. Moon’s also not going to play due to injury, which accelerates Jawad Williams (who?) into the rotation. The tight nine-man rotation has dropped to seven, and for a team with much less top-level talent than the Lakers, that’s significant.

Meanwhile, the Lakers’ bench has been abysmal at times this year. According to SB Nation’s Silver Screen and Roll, the Lakers’ bench averages the fewest points per game in losses in the league by far, and they also haven’t helped much in other areas. This is a top-heavy team, to say the least.

But things are starting to turn around, and Silver Screen and Roll has many reasons why that’s happening. Those reasons include: the return to health of Gasol and Andrew Bynum (which moves Lamar Odom back to the bench, where he can stabilize the second unit), a shortened rotation, the resurgence of Jordan Farmar and the unexpected strong play of dunk contest participant Shannon Brown.Suddenly, the Lakers can roll out Odom, Brown, Farmar and Luke Walton off the bench, giving them a decent nine-man rotation when everyone is playing well.

In the Christmas Day game, this matchup was very lopsided in favor of the Cavaliers. Tonight, it’s more even, at least on paper. Whichever side can get better play from their reserves will win this game.

That bold proclamation was sponsored by Reggie Miller. Reggie Miller, where basic predictions that sound bolder than they are happens.