Baseball Prospectus, in case you weren’t aware, is home to some of baseball’s most respected statisticians. Their PECOTA rankings -- assumedly named in honor of a certain beloved utility infielder -- attempt to project each team’s performance based on statistical variables.
Baseball Prospectus Admits Error, Now Projects Nats To Finish At...81-81
↵This year, they projected the Nationals to finish at 82-80. Yes, seriously. It’s almost as though the future greatness of pitcher Stephen Strasburg offers an aura of competence that somehow leaks into the statistics. After readers expressed confusion, Baseball Prospectus responded:
↵↵Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.
↵↵As of Saturday, the projections have been updated. So where are the Nationals now? 81-81. They lost one win. This team finished at 59-103 last year. If I were as smart as the B-P crew, I’d be critical. But as it stands, I’ll just sit here and gesture emptily. It’s what I do.
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