As Jeff Sullivan pointed out, the Padres' collapse ranks among the worst of all time. At their peak on August 25th, coolstandings.com gave San Diego a 97.2% chance of post-season play. Only two teams have reached that level of certainty since 1962, then failed to make it. The 1999 Reds blew a 98.4% shot, being 2 1/2 up on the Mets with four left, eventually losing to them in a play-in; and the 2007 Mets were at 99.5% before imploding in September.
Why The Padres Aren’t In The MLB Playoffs
So, the pundits who said the Padres wouldn’t last, e.g Jon Morosi, were eventually proved right - albeit a lot later than most expected. But let’s take a closer look at the numbers and see if we can find out what triggered the 14-23 run that doomed San Diego. Did their offense stop scoring runs, or their pitchers start allowing them? After the jump, we’ll see what we find.
Pitching
To August 25: 3.24 ERA, 3.41 runs per game. 7.95 K/9, 3.15 BB/9
After August 25: 3.94 ERA, 4.19 runs per game. 8.20 K/9, 3.36 BB/9
Definitely a bit of a turn for the worse here, but nothing too drastic. Even allowing for the run-suppressing factors of Petco, a sub-four ERA is pretty good. In September, San Diego had the fifth-best ERA in the National League, and their bullpen was impeccable, with a 2.89 number for the month. A couple of members of the rotation, however, struggled down the stretch - San Diego went 3-12 over Clayton Richard and Mat Latos's last fifteen starts combined, in part because they had a joint 4.71 ERA after August 25, compared to 2.98 before it.
Offense
To August 25: .252/.325/.382 = .707 OPS. 4.48 runs per game
After August 25: .226/.289/.335 = .624 OPS. 2.84 runs per game
Ouch. Yeah, here’s the real crux of the matter: the offense basically gave up. When they did score during those final 37 games, the pitching staff usually made it hold up - the Padres went 10-4 when scoring three or more runs. But the majority of the time, San Diego were held to two runs or less and, at the risk of stating the obvious, that makes it very, very hard to win: they were 2-17 in those contests.
Particular culprits and their OPS's after August 25: David Eckstein (.529); Chase Headley (.544) and Ryan Ludwick (.587). And they appeared in 36, 35 and 37 of the last 37 games respectively, so the Padres basically had three offensive vortexes of suck in their everyday line-up. About the only man who kept producing was Adrian Gonzalez, who hit .296 with an .887 OPS. If they'd made it, he would surely be a serious contender for MVP; now, probably not so much.
Still, the Padres performed a lot better than almost everyone expected, thanks largely to their pitching staff - and bullpen in particular. If they can retain the core, and also shore up some of the offensive flaws that were glaringly exposed down the stretch, there’s no reason they won’t be in the mix again in 2011.
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