NFL Picks, Lines, And Odds For Week 5: Do We Bet ON Randy Moss, Or AGAINST Brett Favre?

Winning against the spread, beating Vegas, outsmarting the standings--it’s all so fleeting. NFL predictions are like that scene in “White Men Can’t Jump” with Rosie Perez. No, not that Rosie Perez scene, you perverts (sideboob!). I’m talking about the scene where she speaks in riddles and inadvertently explains the gambling universe.

“Sometimes when you win, you really lose,” she says. “And sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose. Winning or losing is all one organic mechanism, from which one extracts what one needs.”

...What the hell does that mean?

Nobody knows... But it’s pretty much the perfect way to describe how I feel after almost any weekend of gambling. Especially last week, when my first picks column went 3-2 against the spread, and I still somehow lost money, because I couldn’t resist betting against Josh McDaniels and the Broncos in Tennessee, and parlaying the moneylines on Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Diego, and New Orleans. ... BECAUSE KEVIN KOLB RUINS EVERYTHING.

And as predicted last week, after coming out on top the first three weeks of the NFL season, I managed to lose. So it’s an ambiguous feeling, really. Should I feel smarter than Vegas for having noticed the Jaguars always play Indy close, and taking the points? Or should I feel stupid for betting on the Raiders to do something well, ever? Sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie. And when you tie... All you can do is keep playing!

Sadly, the New England Patriots have a bye this week, so we’ll have to wait another seven days before we can bet big against the juggernaut of Woodhead, Edelman, and Welker. Because it’s not reverse-racism if hating those players makes you money.

Anyway, this week’s lines, courtesy of Odds Shark:

So, which five games can we make money on? WHO’S READY TO GET RICH?

1. St. Louis at Detroit (-3). So far this season, the Detroit Lions are 3-1 against the spread. They’re also sitting at 0-4, because even when good things happen in Detroit, everything still sucks. But that’s okay, because the Lions’ record means that Vegas is still disrespecting them, and we can still make money off them. Instead of a 2-2 team that nobody in Vegas can figure out--some giving them too much credit, some not enough--they’re the best 0-4 team in football, and we can ride this wave as long as possible. Against the Rams this weekend, they’re facing another plucky underdog that’s surprised people so far. Thing is, the Rams just aren’t very good. Take Detroit this week, and until further notice.

2. Kansas City at Indianapolis (-7.5). Okay, so we all love Kansas City and we all hate Peyton Manning. Or maybe that’s just me on the second one. Either way, it’s tempting to ride the momentum the Chiefs have gathered in the season’s first month, and tab them to make this a statement game against Manning and the Colts (a Super Bowl contender that’s looked pretty average the past few weeks). But then... Peyton Manning. You may not like him, but betting against him is terrifying. And betting against to lose a second straight game, at home, against a young Chiefs secondary... Well, that’s just insanity. Bet on Peyton, then take a long shower to wash off your shame.

3. Jacksonville (PK) at Buffalo. I hate when writers say, “I only have a few rules in life...” But I actually have a rule that whenever there’s a Pick ‘Em on the board, I force myself to bet one way or the other. It’s just awesome; especially when the game involves two terrible, unpredictable teams like these two. Because even though it feels good to outsmart Vegas, sometimes it’s nice to say “screw it!” and bet blindfolded. That’s what this is. As for who wins...

You know how people say stuff like, “If you’d put 10 dollars on IBM in 1980, you’d have 10 billion dollars today”? That stuff infuriates me. Why wasn’t I told of this fool-proof scheme earlier? Likewise, I have to think that if we’d all been betting against the Buffalo Bills every weekend for the past 15 years, we’d have at least 100 million dollars. Why didn’t anyone tell me THAT? Take Jacksonville.

4. Green Bay (-2.5) at Washington. Partly out of spite because the Redskins ruined my parlay last week, and partly because the ‘Skins got lucky with Vick going down, didn’t look all that great at any point in Philadelphia, and because you don’t go 8-8 by beating teams like this year’s Packers. And Washington’s clearly going 8-8, so... These are the games that the ‘Skins will lose, because they’re not actually a good football team. If this line was 6.5-7.5, maybe it’d be different. But take the Packers, and then cackle and roll blunts.

5. Minnesota (+4) at New York Jets. Hooooo boy, here we go. Brett Favre returns to the Meadowlands just as new evidence surfaces in the whole Jenn Sterger cell phone scandal, and we’re all left to wonder... How could anyone possibly take him seriously at this point? Including, and especially, his teammates. Not only is he a mediocre quarterback, but he’s about to become a national joke if there’s any fire to all the smoke that’s emerged in the past 24 hours. Does that sound like someone you want to bet on?

Maybe not, but Randy Moss will be there, too. And just like you don’t bet against Peyton Manning coming off a loss, you don’t bet against a motivated Randy Moss. And haven’t the Sanchez-led offense for the Jets has been a little too good the past few weeks? And by “good” I mean “not awful.”

Doesn’t it feel like we’re due for another abomination from Nacho Sanchez on National TV? I love the Jets, but something tells me they’re feeling a little too pleased with themselves after putting 38 on Buffalo. They’re a good team, but not that good. It was Buffalo.

In 2003, Brett Favre was mourning the death of his father when he the Packers to a rout of the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football. Many in the media called it one of the more inspirational performances in the history of the game. In 2010, he will be mourning the death of his reputation and self-respect when the Vikings lead a stirring rout of the New York Jets, leading many in the media to awkwardly pretend that nothing special happened. “What distractions?” they’ll say.

That Monday Night game in 2003 was maybe the defining moment of his career to that point. A perfect example of his “gutty performance” and his “undying love of the game.” The Monday Night game in 2010 will be better, though. The true Brett Favre has been revealed: a scumbag that nobody calls a scumbag, kind of an idiot, but still, really good at football when it counts.

That’s what Brett’s legacy should be, so that’s what I’m rooting for, and that’s what I’m betting on. Take the Vikings, throw on some crocs, and enjoy the most awkward “gutty performance” ever.

Crocs via singledadlife.com ... Rosie via ... All other photos courtesy Getty Images