Wobbly MLS predictions; half-baked U.S. national team opinions

Mea culpa: how soccer writers sometimes get it wrong

I write for a living. A majority of it is about soccer. Hooray, life!

But somehow, being a writer also means you have to be a prognosticator. And let’s face it: if I could really do that, I wouldn’t be a damned writer. I’d be idling out by the Hard Rock pool in Las Vegas at this very moment, working my second minty mojito of the afternoon and starting to wonder about whether I’d take it easy on the bookmakers that night and only make 5 Large, or whether I’d just go ahead and kick the shit out of them as usual and make my nightly 10K?

But since I’m writing this, we know that ain’t the way it is. And yet, writers are routinely asked to make predictions, to pick winners.

Last week, I called all four MLS playoff series. I got one right.

I thought Colorado would have the midfield and strikers to get by Columbus. As I like to say, “That’s one in a row!”

Because I was dead wrong on L.A.-Seattle, and dead wrong-ish on RSL-Dallas and San Jose-New York.

In all honesty, triumphs by San Jose and Dallas were hardly shockers. (And I wrote as much, that both sides had reasonable upset chances. Go back and check it out. G’head.)

But I really thought Seattle would pull ahead of L.A. and hang on. What I underestimated, looking back, is how much the big-game experience of guys like David Beckham, Landon Donovan and even Eddie Lewis means in the playoffs. Clearly, they knew how to find the extra gear, how to manage the moment; Seattle never did and the series wasn’t as close as the 3-1 aggregate might suggest.

I was also wrong on something else recently – although I found my way on this one pretty quickly. This was about the U.S. national team and its match next week in Cape Town against South Africa.

There could be no compelling reason, I suggested, to drag a bunch of the starters halfway around the world (literally) for a meaningless friendly. Well, file that under shooting off my mouth before I really thought about it.

By the time the Americans released their roster, I had arrived at my senses. I’ll write more about it next week when I preview the match, but the bottom line here is this: why wouldn’t the United States want to take this opportunity? Clearly, Bradley has more respect for his starters (and for their clubs) than to ask them to travel such a distance for a friendly. Meanwhile, there are several young players who can be observed at the international level. Plus, he gets a head start on the potential tug of war for a couple of players who have big decisions ahead, talents like Teal Bunbury and Mikkel Diskerud.

Bunbury is eligible to play for the United States or for Canada. Diskerud has played for Norwegian and U.S. youth sides. An appearance in a U.S. senior friendly doesn’t mean they can’t switch allegiances later. (An appearance in a World Cup qualifier, on the other hand, would tie them to one team.) But it does demonstrate interest and respect for their abilities and potential, and that can mean a lot to an athlete.

Bradley’s side made a similar November appearance in South Africa three years ago. (In fact, the match was on Nov. 17, three years to the day from when this one will take place.) Maurice Edu made his second start – having made his first just a month earlier, as he continued to establish a solid place in the pool. Freddy Adu made his first start that night for the U.S. senior team. (OK … they don’t all work out so well.) And a young striker named Jozy Altidore earned his first cap that night in Johannesburg. You may not have known much about him then – but you’ve surely have heard of him now, right?

So, I got that one wrong at first, too. There’s plenty of reason to play this match. Three years from now, we could be taking about Bunbury or Diskerud getting their first cap, or about Eric Lichaj or Alejandro Bedoya getting his debut start in the match that launched something special.

Here’s the full U.S. roster

Goalkeepers: Brad Guzan (Aston Villa, England), Dom Cervi (Celtic, Scotland).

Defenders: Nat Borchers (Real Salt Lake), Eric Lichaj (Aston Villa, England), Clarence Goodson (Start, Norway/Brondby, Denmark), Jonathan Spector (West Ham, England), Jonathan Bornstein (Tigres, Mexico), Tim Ream (New York), Gale Agbossoumonde (Miami/Braga, Portugal).

Midfielders: Brian Carroll (Columbus), Robbie Rogers (Columbus), Eddie Gaven (Columbus), Mikkel Diskerud (Stabaek, Norway), Alejandro Bedoya (Orebro, Sweden), Logan Pause (Chicago).

Forwards: Robbie Findley (Real Salt Lake), Teal Bunbury (Kansas City). Juan Agudelo (New York).