Over the last two match days in the English Premier League, no fixture has been decided by more than two goals. Yes, there have been two other match days with similar results, but there was an uncommon competitiveness to the last week’s action - a drama that belied the final score. Perhaps this is just me wanting the league to be something is hadn’t been of late, but it sure seems like we’re getting more competitive matches matchday-in, matchday-out than we did last season.
English Premier League, Matchday 13 Preview: Bunched League, Vulnerable Leaders Approach One-Third Mark
Consider the few lopsided results from the last week. Weekend (two goal) wins by Bolton (versus Tottenham), Sunderland (versus Stoke), Manchester City (at West Brom) and Liverpool (versus Chelsea) all played with more drama than your typical multi-goal decisions. Even Arsenal's mid-week 0-2 at Wolves required a late Marouane Chamakh tally to create the final margin. Such competitiveness is a far cry from the season's beginning, when Villa, Blackpool, Chelsea and Manchester United all posted lopsided victories.
Expect the tight affairs to continue this weekend (dubious last words) thanks to a fixture list which, while disappointingly devoid of marquee match-ups, does a good job of keeping the wheat from meeting the chaff. By the table, the most lopsided matches are Bolton's Saturday visit to Wolves and Everton's Sunday match with Arsenal. Given Arsenal's recent form, it's not unclear they should even be favored at Goodison, while Bolton's sixth place standing can not completely dissociate them from a recent history that makes Wolves more peer than subordinate. There is some potential for romps with Sunderland visiting Chelsea and Tottenham hosting Blackburn, but the favorite's recent form could see those matches as competitive as Manchester United's trip to Villa or Liverpool's visit to Stoke.
It’s the recent form from the league’s top teams that’s made the Premier League so competitive. Chelsea’s dealing with depth issues in midfield. Manchester United’s still got a case of the draws. Arsenal’s been unconvincing while City’s been unambitious. All four teams are vulnerable, and given a league where only three points separates fifth from 14th, a number of teams have shown themselves capable of exploiting weakness.
But the Premier League isn’t the only circuit experiencing a combination of elite club struggles and mid-table bunching. In Italy, perennial champion Internazionale’s slipped to fourth, followed by Juventus and Roma. Seventh place Sampdoria, with 15 points, is only four points ahead of 19th place Cesena.
In Germany, the bunching is higher on the table, with the league’s powers experiencing greater problems. Fourth place Frankfurt is only three points clear of 10th place Hannover, a range that includes defending champions Bayern Munich, sitting in 9th. Werder Bremen are 11th. Stuttgart sit 14th, while Champions League club Schalke’s in 16th.
But the Bundesliga’s oddities are nothing compared to France. Newly promoted Brest is first in Ligue 1, and while defending champions Marseille sit 4th, perpetual power Lyon are 11th. Bordeaux, in Champions League last season, is in 10th, while last season’s third place finisher (Auxerre) sits 13th. In Fracen, the distance between first (21 points) and 19th (Lens, 13) is smaller than Chelsea’s lead on fifth place Newcastle (nine points).
With all these leagues about to reach their one-third mark, we can’t write these abnormalities off to early days. At the same time, there may be no underlying cause. This may be coincidence, were the phenomena will disappear as we play through winter.
If there is a cause, it's World Cup theory - that the summer's tournament is having a disproportionately large effect on bigger clubs. That thinking gets some circumstantial support when considering injuries.The Italian champions have had to deal with injuries to Júlio César, Maicon, and Wesley Sneijder, while Bayern Munich's lost both Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery.
England's big clubs have not been immune to this bug. Chelsea's midfield problems are in large part attributable to Frank Lampard's three month layoff. Manchester United's without Wayne Rooney and just got Rio Ferdinand back (no pun intended). Arsenal's dealt with injuries to Cesc Fàbregas, Abou Diaby, and Robin van Persie, while Spurs' back line has been in tatters with the losses of Michael Dawson and Ledley King.
Of those players, only Ferdinand, Fàbregas and van Persie will be available this weekend, and Ferdinand may be spared the quick turnaround. Gerard Houillier and Aston Villa will be the beneficiaries, just as Sunderland will benefit from Frank Lampard's absence and Blackburn will be blessed by a William Gallas-Younes Kaboul pairing in Spurs' defense. Cesc Fàbregas's full fitness is still a question ahead of Sunday's match at Goodison, giving another mid-table side a chance to nick points from one of the league's best.
Whether the World Cup theory is the reason, Premier League elites are winning slightly less often than they did last season. Then, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal dropped points in 32.7 percent of heir matches. This year, that number is up to 38.9. That difference is not huge, but it tells of more points being left to the middle of the Premier League table, perhaps contributing to the bunched league we see going into matchday 13.
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