If it makes anyone feel any better about the highly flawed MLS playoff system, know that the whole thing is slightly less flawed in the conference finals.
MLS playoff structure: keeping score
A lack of reward for the higher seed is the predominant complaint about the opening round; One team can be significantly better over the long, seven-month season, but really not gain much benefit for it in the opening round. (Well, other than playing a lower seed.) That’s because of the first-round home-and-away aggregate goals format.
The raw data reveals that there higher seeds do gain an edge in the conference finals – but not a massive one; the better team over the entire season gets the do-or-die, one-match decider at home.
So, how’s that worked out for everyone? Since MLS adopted the current system, the home team is 11-5 in those conference finals.
In fact, one road team has prevailed in the pair of conference finals in five of the last six years. L.A. downed the Rapids in Denver back in 2005, New England overcame D.C. United inside RFK a year later, New York won against the run of play at Real Salt Lake in 2008 and RSL eliminated Chicago in the Windy City (in penalty kicks last year. And, of course, is the most stunning win yet by a visitor in a league semifinal, Dallas ambushed the Galaxy last night.
So, there is an advantage. But is it enough? And what will that mean this week as playoff structure unfolds as one of the major discussion points for MLS deciders during league meetings going on in Toronto.
I’m not sure, honestly. But that’s more data for everyone to chew on – and that can’t be a bad thing.
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