NCAA Bubble Watch: Florida, Virginia Tech And Utah State In; UTEP, Illinois, Miss. State Out

After more hot number-crunching action at the Chateau Bracket, I’ve made a few changes to my Last Five In and First Four Out before the selection show at 6 p.m. ET. This is the last Bubble Watch update for this season.

California (23-10; 13-5 Pac-10; RPI: 20; Non-conf. RPI: 10): The Golden Bears remain here after Saturday’s loss in the Pac-10 final to Washington.

Saturday wasn’t a great day for Bubble Watch teams, as Houston and New Mexico State, stole bids, meaning two teams are destined for the NIT. Things could get even worse Sunday, if Mississippi State claims the SEC title.

If a team’s name appears as a link, click it to visit that school’s SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.

Click here for my Sunday morning bracket (forthcoming). For more on Sunday’s games of importance, check my preview and recap post.

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Things just got a bit more uncomfortable for Bubble Watch teams after the Pac-10 and Mountain West finals this evening.

Washington pushed the Pac-10 closer to two-bid status, as they defeated regular season champion California to claim the league’s automatic bid. I say “closer” because I’m not totally convinced the Golden Bears are safe.

If you’re a fan of a Bubble Watch team like Florida, Illinois, Virginia Tech or UTEP, be prepared for a sleepless night and nerve-racking day Sunday. Results didn’t quite go your way through the afternoon.

Minnesota absolutely hammered Purdue in their Big Ten semifinal, quite the contrast from Illinois’ inability to close out their game with Ohio State, twice.

Houston is our first official bid thief of the year (St. Mary’s West Coast crown is arguable), as they came from behind to stun Conference USA regular season champion UTEP, 81-73, to claim that league’s automatic bid.

Since the Cougars were nowhere close to an at-large threat, that means someone from my Saturday morning “Last Four In” group has to go. As Rhode Island was at-large No. 34 going into today’s action, they drop out.

Click here for my Saturday bracket. For more on Saturday’s games of importance, check my preview/recap post.

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With two days of action left before the bracket is revealed, the at-large picture is starting to clear up a little. Still, there are going to be many anxious Bubble Watch teams sweating it out. That includes one team who I had pegged as safe after Thursday’s action.

If a team’s name appears as a link, click it to visit that school’s SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.

Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school’s SB Nation blog.

America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

Since conference tournament action is moving fast and furious, I want to take this opportunity to point out where the Bubble Watch teams currently stand in terms of game action from here on out.

Virginia Tech, idle on Thursday, plays Miami in the ACC Quarterfinals Friday. The four seed in the ACC is in better shape thanks to the carnage below them on the S-curve.

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America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

After Wednesday’s action at the Big East and Big 12 Tournaments, Bubble Watch teams Marquette, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State are in better position. However, Seton Hall and USF’s bubbles burst.

For more, check out the Big East Tournament Storystream

Here is the updated look at the teams fighting for the last few spots in the NCAA field. Click here for my Wednesday bracket projection.

Thanks to Butler’s win the Horizon League final Tuesday evening, the only change to this list is the removal of UConn after their 21-point loss to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament.

Bubble Watch teams again dodged a bullet Tuesday night, as the Horizon remains a one-bid league, thanks to Butler’s big 70-45 victory over Wright State. That win means all of my “Last Four In” from Monday’s bracket stay in Wednesday’s version.

Two of those teams were in action Tuesday at the Big East Tournament. That event featured four first-round games with bubble interest, and Wednesday will see... four games with bubble interest. This is despite the fact UConn lost their opener. You can follow the biggest of the conference tournaments here on SB Nation.

Bubble Watch teams from coast-to-coast rejoiced when Old Dominion and Siena claimed their respective conference crowns Monday night; however, St. Mary’s win over Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final means there is one less at-large spot remaining.

CAA Championship: Old Dominion 60, William & Mary 53 (recap): The Monarchs probably would have been in even if they lost this one. The Tribe missed several threes in the final minute that could have made this one a real nail-biter, considering Old Dominion’s struggles from the free throw line.

Here is the updated look at the teams fighting for the last few spots in the NCAA field. Click here for my Monday bracket projection.

Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school’s SB Nation blog.

Old Dominion and Siena moved closer to locking up their conferences’ automatic bids on Sunday, while Northern Iowa booked their place by claiming the Missouri Valley crown.

In the major conferences, Florida and Illinois fell to further damage their chances.

Sunday is a quieter day from a Bubble Watch perspective compared to Saturday. Much of the attention over this afternoon and evening will be on conference tournament action. Bubble teams will be hoping for Northern Iowa, Old Dominion and Siena wins.

Team statuses based on my Sunday update.

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America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky, Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Ivy (Cornell), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt

Things are a little clearer for several Bubble Watch teams after Saturday’s action, as teams like UAB, UConn and Rhode Island didn’t grab crucial wins, but Ole Miss, San Diego State and USF did.

If a team’s name appears as a link, click it to visit that school’s SB Nation blog.

Many conferences wrap up their regular seasons this weekend, while others have already jumped into tournament play. That means Saturday is a particularly busy day for the teams fighting for the last few spots in the NCAAs.

Team statuses are based on my Saturday morning bracket.

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America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt

For quite awhile on Thursday night, it looked like the Dayton Flyers were going to grab a key road win at Richmond and sneak in. However, the Spiders prevailed to all but knock UD out of tournament contention, barring a run through the Atlantic 10 Tournament next week.

The other four bubble teams in action all grabbed wins; however, none was big enough to bump them into the field.

Thursday night saw several Bubble Watch teams who are on the outside looking in (in my opinion) looking to grab key wins. All but one was successful.

If a team’s name appears as a link, click it to visit that school’s SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.

Since all of the teams I have in “Last Four In” group played either on Tuesday or Wednesday, Thursday’s Bubble Watch action features several teams looking to move into the bracket.

If a team’s name appears as a link, click it to visit that school’s SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.