Spring Training: Breaking Down The Ryan Howard-Albert Pujols Blockbuster Rumor

There are trades that send shockwaves through the sports world, but there are rarely trade rumors that have gotten as much attention as the Phillies kicking the tires to see if they could trade super slugger Ryan Howard for St. Louis legend Albert Pujols.↵

↵↵This rumor just won’t die. In fact, it dominated the conversation in both cities on Monday, with people chiming in – at least in Philly – on both sides of the never-going-to-happen deal. TV stations in Philly even wanted to talk to sports bloggers about it, and I was awake enough yesterday morning to lend my expertise on the matter. In short, it’s a trade that would never happen in fantasy baseball, let alone real life. But if it did, as great as Ryan Howard has been for Philadelphia, the Phillies would make this trade in less than a second – they’d be high-fiving at the airport before the Cardinals realized what happened. And that’s precisely why it won’t.↵

↵↵This rumor started with a report from Buster Olney at ESPN, and while I would never question Olney’s sources – he is one of the best and most well-sourced reporters with “an unquenchable thirst for knowledge” in the industry – this is one of those ridiculous ideas that if it had started on a sports blog with the same exact source, Ken Rosenthal would be yelling at the blogger on Outside the Lines right now. It’s entirely that ridiculous. In fact, this is likely how the conversation went in Philadelphia: “We may not be able to afford Ryan Howard in a few years. Maybe we should think about trading him, so let’s start to put a list together of players we’d want back for the best power hitter in the history of the franchise. Albert Pujols. That’s it. That’s the list.”↵

↵↵To his credit, Howard downplayed the rumor to reporters, telling those in the clubhouse on Monday: ↵

↵↵⇥“I really don’t have anything to say about it,” Howard said. “Truthfully, I can go back to all the stuff that happened when I was in double-A -- all the talk about trade rumors. I don’t know anything about anything. I’m not really focused on it. If that were the case -- I don’t know if it is or not -- it is what it is. You just keep going out there and doing your thing. If you get a call saying you’re trade, then you’re traded. Until that happens, I’m still a Phillie. I’m still here. Let’s ride it out.”↵↵Pujols handled the situation in similar fashion, telling St. Louis reporters:↵↵⇥“I don’t pay attention to that,” Pujols said. “My job is to play baseball and take care of this organization as much as I can and try to stay healthy. If you go by [rumors] and what people think, that will drive you crazy.”↵↵

↵There are only two players in the entire league that I’d want over Ryan Howard: Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. You can take everyone else. And yes, I know that Howard is a below average hitter against left-handed pitching (.226/.754 OPS), but his overall offensive production in the National League is nearly second-to-none. And yes, Pujols is really the only player who has been more productive over the last six years.↵↵Howard and Pujols were each named Rookie of the Year in his first season in the Majors. This is where Pujols has landed in the MVP voting since coming into the league in 2001: 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 9th, 1st, 1st. To show how good he is, let’s look at the season where Pujols finished ninth in voting. He hit .327 with 32 home runs and 103 RBI. In fact, 2007 was one of only two seasons in his career that his OPS dipped below 1.000. ↵

↵↵Howard won the 2005 Rookie of the Year after playing just 88 games and backed that up with an MVP award in 2006 with 58 home runs, 149 RBI and an OPS of 1.084, his only season with an OPS over 1.000 in his career. In fact, Howard has just one season with a batting average over .300 and slugging over .600, while Pujols has seven of his nine eclipsing those marks. Yet in a way, Howard has been more productive. ↵

↵↵In his five years, Howard averages 142 RBI and 49 home runs per 162 games while Pujols is averaging 129 and 42. If you look at their September and October splits, you realize why Howard has been such an important part of the three-straight NL East titles: Howard has a slugging percentage of .686 in the last month of the season, with an OPS of 1.112. Pujols’ numbers stay remarkably consistent in the last month, slugging .613 with an OPS of 1.053. So it’s not to suggest that Pujols is bad, by any means, late in the season. But the numbers clearly indicate – Howard has 52 home runs and 141 RBI in 665 plate appearances while Pujols has 51 and 192 in 1055 plate appearances – that Howard is the more productive player down the stretch.↵

↵↵It would be a nice luxury for a team to have either of the two sluggers. Ultimately, like most things in sports, this rumor comes down to money. The Phillies have the highest payroll in franchise history and each year that number just keeps getting bigger. Howard will clearly demand the richest contract for a Phillie, and undoubtedly one of the richest in the game today. But not the richest, which will be what Pujols is looking to sign. ↵

↵↵Pujols wants Alex Rodriguez money, and based on his numbers, he deserves it. The Cardinals may not want to pay $27.5 million dollars a year for Pujols and could think that Howard – a St. Louis native – would be a viable alternative. But is Ryan Howard at $22 million that much more of a bargain than Pujols at $27.5 million? The extra money wouldn’t impact the Phillies as much because it would allow them to let Jayson Werth go via free agency in the off-season without the need to spend big on a right-handed bat to replace him in the lineup. So in a way, paying more for Pujols could end up saving the Phillies a little money in other areas.↵

↵↵But don’t worry, Cardinals fans who are freaking out that they’ll lose the city’s best player since Stan Musial. And don’t worry, misguided Phillies fans who call in to sports radio shows to talk about how trading Howard would hurt team chemistry. This is a spring training rumor that is not going to happen. But it sure is fun to think about.↵

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