Yes, according to one statistical projection. But it comes with a caveat, of course:
Madness? 50,000 NCAA Tournament Predictions From The Predictalator
↵↵Hardcore gamblers will tell you that betting can be reduced down to a science.
↵↵That’s the article’s first sentence. And not to nitpick, but hardcore gamblers will tell you a lot of things...
↵Anyway, the article continues, introducing us to Paul Bessire, inventor of a the “Predictalator”:
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↵Bessire says he has run every possible matchup in the NCAA tournament 50,000 times through what he calls his Predictalator, which uses season stats to guide the program.
↵“The idea is that the unpredictable never happens,” said Bessire, who has his masters degree in quantitative analysis. “It’s whether a likely situation will happen or not.”
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Using 50,000 scenarios pumped out of The Predictalator—which sounds like a fourth grader’s science project—Bessire finds that fifth seeded Michigan State has a 92.1% chance vs. 12-seed New Mexico State in the first round, while another five seed, Butler, has just a 59% chance against 12-seed UTEP. He’s also got Baylor playing in the title game, which makes me feel a lot better about putting them for the Final Four. The Predictalator’s got my back.
↵But then again, I’m sure there are about 1,000 other formulas that say differently. In fact, as far as gambling on the tournament, here’s the safest bet: no matter who you take, there’s someone out there with a statistical formula to support your decision.
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