This afternoon, fifth-seeded Michigan State and six-seed Tennessee face each other with a trip to Indianapolis on the line. This wasn’t quite the expected outcome for the “Bracket of Death,” as many called this year’s iteration of the Midwest Region; most of the criticism of the seeding was that Kansas, the top overall seed, had such laudable company in the top four seeds of the tournament. As it turns out, none of the top four seeds ever even had to face one another; Ohio State was the only one to reach the Sweet 16. That was unexpected.
Elite Eight: Vols, Sparty To Do Battle With Final Four On The Line
Thus, one can certainly say that Michigan State and Tennessee earned their way to the Elite 8, dispatching one of those top four seeds in the closing seconds of their games. Tennessee can claim a harder road to the Elite 8, strictly by virtue of facing 2-seed Ohio State, but none of MSU’s three opponents have been slouches. Even the criminally underseeded Northern Iowa took Michigan State to the brink before faltering down the stretch.
So who’ll be going to Indianapolis with Butler (who, we’ll remind you, just defeated the 1 and 2 seeds of their region) standing between them and the title game? SBN’s Tennessee blog, Rocky Top Talk, sees an even matchup:
There are a ton of factors that suggest this is going to be another incredibly even matchup. We've each got one intangible - their championship experience, our depth - that makes each of us feel like we might have an edge.
But the place where Tennessee must create the biggest edge is, once again, on the inside. Like Ohio State, this is an undersized team that will absolutely hit the glass. And like that game, Wayne Chism and Brian Williams must make sure that we maintain our advantage.
Chism will almost certainly get more attention from Michigan State after what he did to the Buckeyes. If they double-down on him like Ohio did in the second round, ball movement becomes key. What will be available for Prince and Hopson on the baseline? And when the Vols get an open look from three, who will knock it down? Tennessee went 0 for 7 from the arc in the second half, and still beat Ohio State. I'd rather not tempt fate with those odds again.
There’s not much more certainty in East Lansing, either. Our Michigan State blog, The Only Colors, also sees an even battle--maybe even one slanted in Tennessee’s favor:
Intuitively, though, it sure feels like this will be an uphill battle for MSU. I have to think the quick turnaround is going to reduce the number of effective minutes Tom Izzo can get out of Delvon Roe and Chris Allen, meaning the offense will be even more reliant on the Lucious/Summers/Morgan/Green quartet. As good as Lucious has been in Lucas' absence so far (3 turnovers in the last 60 minutes), I worry about him breaking down at some point if Tennessee applies consistent defensive pressure. And Morgan and Green will need to be at their best to find ways to score around the basket against a team that ranks 19th in the country in average height.
On the positive side, the numbers point toward the Spartans dominating the glass on both ends of the court. And the shooting performances of Summers and Lucious of late point toward the possibility of a couple 3-point-shooting-fueled runs at some point during the game. The Volunteers also have a propensity to pick up fouls. In all 8 of their losses this year, Tennessee's opponent got to the free throw line at least 24 times. That'd be a way for MSU to scrape together enough points to keep the game close going into the final minutes.
Tennessee is a team that can play with anyone in the country. They've beaten Kansas, Kentucky, and now Ohio State this year--arguably the three most talented teams in the nation. MSU will not win this game by out-running or out-jumping the Volunteers. They'll have to do it by playing free of mental mistakes on both ends for 40 minutes and competing with the same level of intensity that's gotten them this far into the tournament despite the far-from-ideal circumstances the team has found itself in. If the Spartans make the trek down I-69 to Indianapolis for a 6th Tom Izzo Final Four appearance next week, the trip will have been fully earned.
The Sports network preview is here. Tipoff is at 2:20 EDT, and the game is on CBS and MMOD. Click here for The Only Colors’ open thread, and here for the open thread at Rocky Top Talk.
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