The NASCAR Stats File: Driver Rating

NASCAR’s ‘Driver Rating’ is a special formula similar to the NFL’s quarterback rating in which a number of performance-related factors are taken into consideration.

This stat often tells the truth about drivers because it uses their finishes as well as in-race statistics to determine which ones are running the best.

Here’s what you need to know heading into Homestead for the championship picture:

Kevin Harvick is the fourth-best driver at the 1.5-mile South Florida track, followed by Denny Hamlin (seventh) and Jimmie Johnson (eighth).

Don’t go thinking Jimmie Johnson has been thwarted in an attempt to win his fifth straight championship just yet.

Though Denny Hamlin is the current points leader, NASCAR’s driver rating stat tells us the Chase is far from over.

Every year, Tony Stewart holds a fantasy camp of sorts at Texas Motor Speedway called the “Smoke Show.”

Well, according to NASCAR’s driver rating, Sunday’s race at Texas could turn into the “Smoke Show” as well.

Everyone knows predicting restrictor-plate races is risky business. If you threw the top 25 or 30 drivers’ names in a hat and pulled one out, you’d have just as good of a chance as picking the winner as trying to made an educated guess.

Still, for those of you who want to try doing research, we present you with this week’s driver rating.

Seeing as how Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have combined to win the past eight races at Martinsville, it seems foolish to pick against them this weekend.

But NASCAR’s Driver Rating stat offers some interesting alternatives.

I suppose if you wanted to be different, you could pick Kyle Busch or Kasey Kahne. Maybe you could even go with darkhorse Joey Logano.

But the bottom line is, for yet ANOTHER Chase race (the fourth week in a row), Jimmie Johnson is the best pick at Charlotte.

Jimmie Johnson, Jimmie Johnson, Jimmie Johnson.

Sensing a trend here? When it comes to the Chase, you might as well pick Jimmie Johnson – especially at Auto Club Speedway, where he’s won four of the last six races. Oh, and he’s won the fall Fontana race for three straight years.

Who would be a smart pick at Kansas? Well, there are two drivers who are head and shoulders above the rest: Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle.

Look at their average driver rating numbers: Both drivers are outstanding. And Johnson nearly had a perfect rating once (145 out of 150).

Take your pick: Jimmie Johnson or a Roush Fenway Racing driver.

That pretty much covers the best choices for your fantasy team or driver pool at Dover: Johnson leads, followed closely by Roush’s Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth, with Carl Edwards a distant fourth.

OK, let’s face it: If you’re a Dale Earnhardt Jr. fan these days, watching races is pretty miserable. In fact, it probably flat-out sucks.

So this week, we bring you a bit of good news (since you’ll probably take even the smallest morsels right now): NASCAR’s pre-race driver rating says Earnhardt Jr. is the fourth-best driver at New Hampshire.

Richmond International Raceway isn’t just Denny Hamlin’s home track; it’s one of his best tracks.

Hamlin, who grew up in nearby Chesterfield, tops all drivers in NASCAR’s Driver Rating statistic – just ahead of Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch and Richard Childress Racing’s Kevin Harvick.

Jimmie Johnson has tumbled to ninth in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series point standings, which has made some people wonder if he’s in a slump.

Ryan Newman even told the Associated Press on Wednesday that Johnson’s team is the weakest it’s been in the last five years or so.

With two races before the Chase cutoff, can Mark Martin overcome a 101-point deficit to make NASCAR’s playoff?

Not if you trust NASCAR’s driver rating stat.

You can’t go wrong with Busch at Bristol...at least according to NASCAR’s driver rating formula.

Kyle Busch, who won the Truck race on Wednesday night at the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile,” is the No. 1 selection; brother Kurt, a multi-time Bristol winner, is fifth.

We’ve heard it for years: Michigan is a Roush track.

And according to NASCAR’s driver rating, that’s true. Roush drivers make up three of the top four spots in the pre-race driver rating formula, which is like racing’s version of the NFL’s quarterback rating.

Can Marcos Ambrose find redemption from the blunder that cost him the race in Sonoma earlier this year?

According to NASCAR’s driver rating, there’s a pretty good chance. Ambrose ranks second among all drivers at Watkins Glen International, behind only last year’s winner Tony Stewart.

Typically, NASCAR’s prerace driver rating can help provide some insight into your fantasy picks that you may not have realized otherwise.

At Pocono, though, it’s pretty obvious.

Who should you pick for the Brickyard? If you listen to NASCAR’s driver rating, past winners Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Juan Pablo Montoya look pretty good.

What’s that you say? Montoya didn’t win the Brickyard?

There are four tracks remaining where Jimmie Johnson has never won: Michigan, Homestead, Watkins Glen and...Chicagoland.

But that doesn’t mean you should avoid the new dad for your fantasy picks on Saturday night.

Everyone knows Tony Stewart is great at Daytona. But NASCAR’s driver rating also tells us that either of the Busch Brothers might also be good picks in a hard-to-predict race.

Others who might be good choices? Clint Bowyer (seventh) and Carl Edwards (10th), in addition to past Daytona 500 champs Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway appears to be a House of Hendrick, at least according to NASCAR’s driver rating at the track.

Four of the top six drivers are employed by Hendrick Motorsports, including Jeff Gordon (No. 2), Jimmie Johnson (No. 3), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 5) and Mark Martin (No. 6).

Think about the best road-course racers in NASCAR, off the top of your head: Tony Stewart, right? Yep. Marcos Ambrose? Sure. Jeff Gordon? Of course.

All of those drivers are in the top 10 for NASCAR’s driver rating statistic at Sonoma.

Three of the top four drivers in NASCAR’s driver rating formula are from Roush Fenway Racing this week: Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth.

And fifth is Dale Earnhardt Jr.

This week, the driver rating formula seems to match up with average finish quite well, which means that the guys who stick in our minds as being strong at Pocono – Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards – can be validated as good picks.

In fact, those five might make up a pretty powerful fantasy team at the “Tricky Triangle.”