There’s an equation out there called the Pythagorean Expectation. The Pythagorean formula, which has gained popularity in baseball circles, attempts to calculate what a team’s record ought to be based on its total runs scored and runs allowed. One of the equation’s underlying assumptions is that teams see a normal distribution of run scoring, that, say, a tendency to get blown out is indicative of poor quality, not some mysterious ability to cram a bunch of runs allowed into a small number of games.
Pittsburgh Pirates Locked In A War Against Math
↵Why bring this up? The Pirates were defeated soundly by the Brewers Thursday afternoon by a margin of 20-0. The loss was Pittsburgh’s eighth on the season. Following are their margins of defeat:
- ↵↵8 runs
- ↵8 runs
- ↵9 runs
- ↵6 runs
- ↵6 runs
- ↵7 runs ↵8 runs
- ↵20 runs
↵↵The Pirates have lost eight games by a combined 72 runs. Meanwhile, they’ve won seven games by a combined 15 runs, giving them a 7-8 record and a -57 run differential. This run differential, as you might expect, is the worst in the league, worse even than Baltimore’s -35. As such, the 7-8 Pirates have a Pythagorean record of 3-12.
↵A fan of the Pirates might be encouraged that, despite the blowout, his team is third in its division. However, the statistics paint a far uglier picture, making Pittsburgh out to be the worst team in baseball. It’s early, and there’s a lot yet to be sorted out, but if you like the Pirates, you probably ought to be spooked. Teams that lose blowouts don’t tend to keep winning close games. Teams that lose blowouts tend to suck.
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