Despite Starting Woes, Thanks To Their Bullpen, Tigers Could Contend In AL Central

After taking two of three from the Twins this week in Detroit, the Tigers look like they might be the one AL Central team capable of preventing a cakewalk to the playoffs by Minnesota. At 13-10, the Tigers are only 1.5 games behind the Twins, who have had nearly everything go right for them to start the season.

↵That hasn’t been the case with the Tigers, who remain virtually buzz-less amongst the baseball commentariat. In particular, the purported strength of the roster, the front of the rotation, has struggled mightily. Staff ace Justin Verlander has an ERA of 5.53, which is still preferable to Jeremy Bonderman’s 6.97 mark or the 7.91 currently posted by Rick Porcello. ERA isn’t a great stat for predicting a pitcher’s success going forward, but it is a quick and dirty way of taking a snapshot of what has occurred, at least with regards to how frequently these pitchers have allowed runs. The advanced metrics (which can be found on sites like Fangraphs) suggest that, indeed, the Tigers have gotten thirteen medicore to bad starts from this trio.

↵The newly acquired Max Scherzer and Dontrelle Willis have been merely ok, and neither looks terribly awesome going forward. (Willis, in particular, is barely getting by and could collapse at any time.) However, they’ve helped the rotation avoid the kind of complete meltdown on display in Pittsburgh. Moreover, what has really saved Detroit’s run prevention has been the bullpen. Detroit’s bullpen ERA stands at 2.22, easily the lowest in the American League, with almost an entire run to spare. Essentially every Tiger reliever other than Brad Thomas, has pitched well, and the guys getting the highest leverage innings (Valverde, Zumaya, and Coke) have all been especially good.

↵Largely because of their bullpen, the Tigers are 6th in the American League in runs allowed. It isn’t an impressive figure by itself, but when you factor in how bad their starters have been and remember that they play in the AL Central, it’s something. Miguel Cabrera, with a .330/.419/.604 (BA/OBP/SLG) line, and Magglio Ordonez (.310/.412/.517) have provided most of the power for a lineup that otherwise does very little other than get on base. Surprisingly, the Tigers are second in the AL in team OBP, with a .362 mark that is only a point behind the Yankees. Thanks to those walks, the Tigers are 4th in the league in runs scored.

↵Yes, on the whole, it’s a middling team. Nevertheless, the Tigers might be the only other AL Central team to finish above .500 and perhaps the only team to challenge the Twins.