General

Tom Tango, Blue Jay, Proves The Stat Apocalypse Is Nigh

Apr 9, 2010, 6:05 PM UTC

â†µBack in the time long, long ago when newspapers still existed and bloggersâ†µwere regarded a strange underclass of basement-dwelling, boxer-wearingâ†µtroglodytes, not disclosing your real name was both common and scorned.â†µHiding behind internet anonymity allowed online jackals to cast stonesâ†µor develop complicatedâ†µand accurate pitching statistics without accountability. If youâ†µmentioned batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to Ozzie Guillen,â†µhe'd imply nasty things about your sexual preferences. Only theâ†µsteely-eyed newspaper columnist could provide this service. Bloggersâ†µremained marginalized, and probably smelly. â†µ

â†µâ†µBut that was, like, two years ago. I don’t even rememberâ†µwhat went on back then, but I think dinosaurs had to wash their ownâ†µclothes with lye. Michigan football was good. In the modern era you canâ†µwork for multiple major league baseball teams withoutâ†µeven existing:â†µ

â†µâ†µâ‡¥â†µâ‡¥Last week, the Toronto Blue Jays announced the hiring of baseball’sâ†µâ‡¥modern-day answer to “Student”-the New Jersey-based, Montreal-bornâ†µâ‡¥author, programmer and analyst known to the world as “Tom Tango.” Tangoâ†µâ‡¥is among the most respected figures in the field of “sabermetrics,” theâ†µâ‡¥application of scientific and quantitative methods to baseball. ... Aâ†µâ‡¥wide-ranging baseball philosopher whose topics of study range anywhereâ†µâ‡¥from millimetric variances in the strike zone to multi-million-dollarâ†µâ‡¥team payrolls, Tango is the lead author of 2006’s The Book: Playing theâ†µâ‡¥Percentages in Baseball, perhaps the most important sabermetric manualâ†µâ‡¥of the past two decades. ...â†µâ‡¥
â†µâ‡¥â†µâ‡¥But while he is admired, prolific and an active correspondent withâ†µâ‡¥other scholars, Tango remains an enigma. He keeps his real name aâ†µâ‡¥closely guarded secret. Long known in the online sabermetrics world asâ†µâ‡¥“Tango-tiger,” he tacked on the “Tom” and dropped the “Tiger” solely toâ†µâ‡¥have something semi-respectable-looking to put on the cover of The Book.â†µâ‡¥“There are a lot of old-timers who think that I should sign my Christianâ†µâ‡¥name,” he blogged in 2008. “I don’t see why it’s anyone’s business otherâ†µâ‡¥than mine.”â†µâ‡¥

â†µâ†µâ†µThe Mariners are the other organization employing a possiblyâ†µfictional amalgamation of text and numbers. That sound you heard was theâ†µBaseball Writers Association of America having a collectiveâ†µaneurysm.â†µ

â†µ

â†µWhen the stats guys falter, it's an outlier here and there like poor Paul DePodesta, theâ†µstat-inclined Dodgers GM who got housed by injuries and runâ†µout of town by the skeptical local media, said local media can scoffâ†µat the nerds and their pocket protectors. But at some point there willâ†µbe a majority of major league teams that think this stuff has value, andâ†µwhat can you do then? The Mariners and Jays are using Tom Tango as aâ†µresource. Billy Beane still exists in Oakland. Theo Epstein is famouslyâ†µinterested in sabermetrics. Hell, last year's AL Cy Young winner cites fielding independent pitching (FIP)â†µas a stat he pays exacting attention to. â†µ

â†µâ†µIt seems like we’ve reached a tipping point here, and not just inâ†µbaseball. The Super Bowl saw New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton tryâ†µfor a surprise onside kick and pursueâ†µan aggressive fourth-down strategy as his counterpart shriveled upâ†µand died like it was 1950. Even as Jim Caldwell was doing this, he wentâ†µfor a fourth down of his own. In basketball, rebound margin is dying aâ†µslow,â†µdesâ†µervedâ†µdeath in favor of rebound rates. â†µ

â†µâ†µI mean, when Bill Simmons is pulling a 180 on advanced baseballâ†µstatistics, you know the conventional wisdom is shifting. Simmons hasâ†µmade a career of defining the sports zeitgeist. Here’s the newâ†µzeitgeist:â†µ

â†µâ†µâ‡¥â†µâ‡¥I spent March reading and surfing sabermetrics for mostly selfishâ†µâ‡¥reasons (“I want this column to be better,” “I want anâ†µâ‡¥edge for fantasy purposes,” “I’m bored”), but alsoâ†µâ‡¥because the advanced formulas weren’t nearly as intimidating as I hadâ†µâ‡¥expected. Full disclosure: I, um ... I-I kinda like them. I evenâ†µâ‡¥understand why stat junkies take it so personally whenever a mainstreamâ†µâ‡¥guy spouts out an uninformed baseball opinion. It’s too easy to beâ†µâ‡¥informed these days. Takes a lot less time than you might think.â†µâ‡¥

â†µâ†µâ†µThe VORP believers are about to be raptured up, and in two years theâ†µidea that someone would scoff at FIP will be as crazy as thoseâ†µoff-white-wearing dinosaurs from 2008. â†µ

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This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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