A few days ago, I posted an article discussing some pitchers who you may want to buy on the cheap as they could outperform going forward. Today, I give you some pitchers who could underperform going forward.
Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitchers Who Could Underperform Going Forward
The stats are season to date stats courtesy of Fangraphs:
| Name | K/BB | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | E-F | xFIP | ERA - XFIP |
| Livan Hernandez | 0.85 | 1.02 | 0.19 | 97.60% | 0.99 | 4.62 | -3.63 | 5.35 | -4.36 |
| Doug Fister | 3.20 | 0.80 | 0.22 | 82.80% | 1.29 | 2.68 | -1.4 | 3.97 | -2.68 |
| Jon Garland | 1.15 | 1.37 | 0.25 | 75.30% | 2.06 | 4.60 | -2.54 | 4.69 | -2.63 |
| Jaime Garcia | 1.77 | 1.00 | 0.22 | 81.80% | 1.13 | 2.96 | -1.83 | 3.72 | -2.59 |
| Barry Zito | 2.33 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 82.10% | 1.49 | 2.61 | -1.12 | 4.06 | -2.57 |
| C.J. Wilson | 1.92 | 1.19 | 0.28 | 81.40% | 1.65 | 3.11 | -1.46 | 4.16 | -2.51 |
| Jeff Niemann | 2.18 | 0.99 | 0.21 | 89.80% | 2.23 | 4.35 | -2.12 | 4.61 | -2.38 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 2.75 | 1.02 | 0.26 | 90.70% | 0.87 | 2.19 | -1.31 | 3.14 | -2.27 |
| Rich Harden | 1.35 | 1.50 | 0.26 | 81.50% | 3.52 | 5.49 | -1.97 | 5.71 | -2.19 |
| A.J. Burnett | 2.55 | 1.16 | 0.29 | 80.30% | 1.99 | 3.06 | -1.06 | 4.01 | -2.02 |
| Mitch Talbot | 0.80 | 1.25 | 0.21 | 83.30% | 2.88 | 5.59 | -2.7 | 4.89 | -2.01 |
| Andy Pettitte | 2.08 | 1.21 | 0.29 | 83.70% | 2.08 | 3.11 | -1.03 | 4.07 | -1.99 |
| John Danks | 3.09 | 1.07 | 0.28 | 82.50% | 1.98 | 2.86 | -0.89 | 3.96 | -1.98 |
| Zack Greinke | 4.71 | 0.98 | 0.26 | 80.20% | 2.27 | 3.56 | -1.29 | 4.21 | -1.94 |
| Brad Penny | 3.00 | 1.13 | 0.28 | 83.30% | 1.99 | 3.13 | -1.14 | 3.87 | -1.88 |
| Matt Garza | 2.79 | 1.07 | 0.26 | 84.50% | 2.09 | 3.29 | -1.2 | 3.94 | -1.85 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 1.50 | 1.33 | 0.28 | 82.90% | 2.40 | 3.51 | -1.11 | 4.22 | -1.82 |
| Wade Davis | 1.38 | 1.28 | 0.23 | 85.40% | 2.79 | 4.56 | -1.77 | 4.58 | -1.79 |
| David Price | 2.70 | 1.01 | 0.25 | 80.80% | 2.34 | 3.14 | -0.8 | 3.96 | -1.62 |
| Francisco Liriano | 2.77 | 1.08 | 0.28 | 84.60% | 1.50 | 2.16 | -0.66 | 3.07 | -1.57 |
A couple guys on this list are obvious candidates to regress-Livan Hernandez, Barry Zito and Jon Garland to name a few. Others, like Ubaldo Jimenez should underperform only because he can't pitch any better than he is right now, but you will never get full value for him if you traded him. I would keep him if I had him on any of my teams today.
Mike Pelfrey is also on this list, but I have a feeling he can pitch well for the rest of the season. Maybe not 2.40 ERA-like, but would a mid-3 ERA upset fantasy owners? I also wonder if Francisco Liriano, Wade Davis and David Price can keep up the nice work going forward.
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