Propensity to fall behind could bite the U.S. World Cup effort

If you know a guy who knows a guy – if you know what I mean – here’s the best bet you could make concerning the first U.S. World Cup match: England to score first.

Clearly, there are no guarantees in life. There are always mysterious forces at work – otherwise, women wouldn’t keep marrying Larry King.

But the data suggests strongly that the United States will concede the first goal. Bob Bradley’s men have done so in all five friendlies this year. They started off the year in a 3-0 hole against Honduras. They also had to fight back against deficits against El Salvador, Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey. Only El Salvador and Turkey could be salvaged into victories.

Back in final round CONCACAF qualifying, sleepy starts saw the United States fell behind initially six times through 10 matches. Most concerning were instances where the Americans allowed the opener at home, although they did rally to win over Honduras in Chicago and El Salvador in Utah. Similarly, they rallied for a valuable victory in Costa Rica and a draw in El Salvador.

Bradley frequently found solace in the positive responses – even if the matches were admittedly less comfortable than they needed to be. Here's what he said along the way:

"You do feel that pressure for a moment, but there was a real strong response from the players on the field," the U.S. manager said after rallying to prevail over El Salvador. "That says a lot about what these players are all about.

"It’s not what you’re hoping for," Bradley said with a weary grin. "Soccer is crazy sometimes. You take the initiative in games, but it doesn’t always mean you’re going to score. Ultimately, you hope it’s something you can turn around, but it’s nice to see everybody understand that the game’s not over when we fall behind."

(Not just a Bradley problem; it was Bruce Arena's too ... after the jump.)

There is some hope. As with all U.S. hope this summer, it goes back to the Confederations Cup. Bradley's men did manage to secure the first goal in four of five matches. But as these were essentially glorified friendlies, that should come with an asterisk.

Of course, none of this is solely a Bradley thing. The whole World Cup effort fell apart four years ago in large part due to early concession of the lead. It took the United States just five minutes to position themselves behind the 8 Ball against the Czech Republic in Gelsekirchen.

They fell behind Italy after 22 minutes before the heroic, nine-man stand in Kaiserslautern. And the 22^nd was the vulnerable moment once again as Ghana took the early lead in the U.S. first-round finale.

Bruce Arena admonished reporters again and again for failing in their critical analysis, in his eyes, to see how these early goals changed the calculus of it all.

Of course, that was beside the point – Arena just didn’t see it that way. The rub should have been: "Why are you falling behind? Isn’t that a symptom of the toxin?"

A lot of U.S. soccer fans hope the same questions won’t be asked in South Africa. But an alarming sample of evidence suggests that they will.