We’re not even one-third of the way through the season, but for a number of teams, the season is to all intents and purposes over. CoolStandings.com currently gives eight teams, four in each league, less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs. While hope springs eternal, less than a dozen teams since 1990 have come back from such slim odds to reach the post-season.
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However, two did just that last season. The Rockies were only given a 2% chance on June 3rd, but made the playoffs, as did the Twins, who were three back of the Tigers with four to play on September 30th, and a 4% shot before eventually winning in Game #163. Which of the current long-shots has the best chance of following in their footsteps?
Numerically speaking, the best odds belong to the Chicago White Sox, who only just fell into this category, at 4.9%. But with South Side Sox quoting The Serpent and the Rainbow (“Don’t bury me...I’m not dead!”), optimism seems at a premium, and local interest largely focused on the Blackhawks. Still, they are in better shape than the two teams below them in the AL Central, Kansas City (1.7%) and Cleveland (0.3%). Then there’s Baltimore, who were last above the 5% threshold on... Er, April 9
In the NL, the East is still wide open, with every team at 12% or above. Not so, the Central, where the Brewers, Pirates and Astros are already seen as 70-1 or worse shots. The Astros even hit the skids three days quicker than the Orioles, but starting your season 0-8 will do that to you. They are joined in the futility carriage at the back of the MLB train by the Diamondbacks, who actually stuck around a bit, not climbing aboard until May 8, but have gone 6-15 since..
Of course, nothing in baseball is certain - though the 79.5% chance of Target Field seeing post-season baseball in its first year is pretty impressive, given we are less than two months into the season. But it seems likely that for most, if not all of the teams mentioned in this report, it’s going to be a long rest of the year.
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