How To Win A World Cup Shootout Using Mathematical Equations

↵The start of the World Cup is just ten days away. While it will be another few weeks before teams exit pool play and we have a chance to debate the merits of deciding the most important soccer matches in the world with something as arbitrary as penalty kicks, the fact still remains that at some point in the World Cup, someone is going to need to hit a penalty kick that will win a match. According to a study on the subject coming out of England, there are some simple mathematical rules teams should follow to find penalty kick success in South Africa. ↵

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↵↵Lucozade Sport, official sports nutrition supplier to United Kingdom Athletics (basically Gatorade for those who say “cheerio” instead of eating them), joined with Prozone, a company that specializes in player analysis, to devise a formula for taking penalty kicks in the upcoming World Cup. It has been no secret that England’s national squad has struggled with spot kicks in big tournaments in the past, so the study aims to give a little empirical data for Fabio Capello to use when picking five players for a potential shootout.↵

↵↵In a nutshell, research indicates that a player with the best chance of scoring a penalty kick is a 21-year old, right-footed forward who runs from outside the box and aims for the top left corner. Do all that, and you’re sure to score.↵

↵↵Okay, fine, this study screams small sample size, as the organization only looked at the last three World Cup finals (what, no Baggio?) and combined that data with the last three European Championships. There were 14 shootouts in those tournaments with 130 penalty kicks being struck. It’s not exactly looking back through the 120 years since the penalty kick was invented, now is it? Alas, here are some interesting trends nonetheless.↵

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↵↵Now, stats like the last are where the small sample size comes becomes most troubling. In theory, with just 130 kicks analyzed, it’s fair to assume that a very small number of kicks were taken by those of any specific age, let alone a player as young as 21. Therefore, based on the 91 percent, it’s safe to estimate that somewhere in the neighborhood of 11 kicks were taken by 21-year olds, with 10 hitting the back of the net. It’s a significant success rate, but not exactly something you should take to the bank.↵

↵↵The entire study is likely nothing more than a clever way for Lucozade and Prozone to associate their brands with the World Cup without paying for any sort of actual sponsorship. It would be interested to see now this formula holds up when additional tournaments are added in, or when penalty kicks in the regular course of game action throughout World Cup qualifying are factored in as well. Would age be an indicator of anything significant with twice as many kicks recorded? Would left-footers have more of a fighting chance from the spot if an additional 130 shots from World Cup qualifiers and club play had been analyzed?↵

↵↵While the individual numbers may be nothing more than a trend, and surely not enough data to be considered empirical evidence for success – though if I’m a goalkeeper, I’m leaning a little more toward the top-left corner all of the sudden – one number could be the biggest indicator for success:↵

↵↵⇥The team that misses the first penalty goes on to lose the shoot out a huge 78.5 percent of the time, and while almost a third (64 percent) of all shoot outs go to the full five penalties, all five are scored a mere 18 percent of the time.↵↵In other words, someone is going to miss, so you better hope your team isn’t the one that does it first.
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↵(H/T Off the Post)↵