The Chicago White Sox Aren’t Dead Yet

After falling to 23-32 earlier this month, the White Sox have gone a surprising 8-2 to climb to just 6.5 games back of Minnesota. At 31-34 they aren’t in great shape, but thanks to mediocre play from the Twins and Tigers they also aren’t quite dead either.

Part of the reason they’re still alive is that, when you look at the White Sox roster, you see a group that is at least comparable to Detroit and Minnesota. The White Sox have the foundations of a very good starting rotation in place, and as Jeff Sullivan pointed out yesterday, Jake Peavy is starting to pitch better. After a rough start, Mark Buehrle looks to be returning to form as well, posting a 1.29 ERA in his last two starts. John Danks and Gavin Floyd, meanwhile, still have the potential to be better than average mid-rotation guys. Offensively, although Paul Konerko is likely to cool off, there’s growth potential overall if the Sox can get better production out of Carlos Quentin and Gordon Beckham.

The other reason the Sox are still alive is because they play in the AL Central. The Twins are probably the best of the bunch, but they don’t look like an elite team anymore. After starting 19-9, the Twins have gone 19-19. In that same span, the Tigers have gone 20-16. The White Sox have gone 19-18. The Twins have the best top-end talent in the division with Mauer and Morneau, but you can also count the injury-free seasons those guys have had on one hand.

In the AL Central, you only need a good 10 games or so to make a move in the division. It’s been that way for a decade now, when the great Indians dynasty broke down, and it appears 2010 isn’t going to be any different.

Baseball Prospectus puts Chicago’s odds of making the playoffs at about 4%, which seems about right. If the Sox cool off and go 2-5 in the next week, we can probably bury them for good. However, for now, we can’t.