World Cup 2010 Day 15 Schedule, Preview, Predictions: The Last Day Of Group Play
The tournament co-favorites look to win Groups G and H, with Brazil and Spain looking to avoid matching-up against each other in the Round of 16. Whereas Group G looks set to send Portugal through with Brazil, Switzerland and Chile could still see Spain make an Italy-esque exit from the tournament.
Group G is all but settled, with Portugal's desire to unseat Brazil at the top of the group determining whether we'll have a meaningful match at the early start time. The other game - Cote d'Ivoire versus North Korea - will be important for each teams' pride, but neither side have a chance to feature in the knockout stage.
The meaningful matches will take place in Group H, where we could see three teams finish on six points. To be guaranteed to advance, Switzerland needs a multi-goal win over a Honduran team whose injury luck has gone bad. Spain will play their part toward that three-way tie with a win over Chile, who need only a point to win the group. A win by the European Champions puts the pre-tournament co-favorites through to the final sixteen.
Friday’s matches in World Cup 2010 - the last day of group play:
Brazil versus Portugal, Durban, 10:00 a.m. Eastern, ESPN
Where They Stand: Brazil's on top of Group G with six points but needs at least a draw from Portugal to close-out the group. They'll have to get that result without Kaká, who is suspended for the match after picking up two yellow cards against Cote d'Ivoire. Julio Baptista looks set to come into the lineup in his place.
Portugal is not mathematically into the knockout stage, but in order to be eliminated on Friday they would have to lose to Brazil, have Cote d’Ivoire defeat North Korea, and have their nine goal advantage in goal difference turned around. They may not be mathematically through to the Round of 16, but Cote d’Ivoire’s chances of passing them may be statistically insignificant.
Player(s) To Watch, Brazil: It’s unclear how many of Brazil’s first choices will play, but if Dunga starts most of this regular starting XI, Robinho, who has shown his usual flashes of brilliance, will be crucial in replacing the creativity lost through Kaká‘s absence.
Then again, when you have an in-form Luis Fabiano, who blasted in two goals against Cote d'Ivoire, sometimes it's just a matter of getting him the ball, letting him juggle (and handle) through a defense, and waiting for goals.
Player(s) To Watch, Portugal: Cristiano Ronaldo carries a yellow card into this match and should be sat lest he incur a suspension for the knockout round, but the temptation to win the group may have Carlos Queiroz start his best player. Whether he does will give us an immediate indication as to whether Portugal is content merely getting through the group, possibly meeting Spain in the Round of 16.
The precarious part of “going for it” is you’re not guaranteed to win just because you try. Portugal could play Ronaldo, see him get a yellow card, and still fail to beat Brazil. Better to start Simão and Danny and take your chances with two very capable players. While it’s not putting your best foot forward, it’s not a team that’s giving-up.
Prediction: This will be close a match, as Brazil’s tend to be, and at some point both teams will become accustomed to the idea of a draw. We could see a Brazil 1, Portugal 1 where minutes 45 to 70 find each team probing for the win before pulling-back and protecting their point.
Cote d’Ivoire versus North Korea, Nelspruit, 10:00 a.m. Eastern, ESPN2
Where They Stand: North Korea has been eliminated, while Les Elephants need a huge victory and a Portugal loss to advance. While neither team may treat this as a "dead rubber," for all intents and purposes, it is.
Player(s) To Watch, Cote d'Ivoire: Should Didier Drogba play? The Ivorian striker has been pressed into action with a broken arm, having a plate inserted pre-tournament to stabilize his ulna. Now that Cote d'Ivoire's chances to advance are only pseudo-mathematical, doesn't coach Sven-Göran Eriksson have to keep Drogba out? Ethically? Can a coach justify playing somebody highly susceptible to injury when the team is unlikely to reap any relevant benefits from the performance?
Player(s) To Watch, North Korea: Captain Hong Yong-Jo's main responsibility is to serve as Jong Tae-Se's supporting striker, but coming-off the 7-0 loss to Portugal, Hong's main value will be in re-focusing the team on Cote d'Ivoire. Hong is the team's leading scorer and most accomplished player at the club level, and although he has taken a backseat to Jong in attack since the Japan-born North Korean came into the set-up, Hong's experience could be a stabilizing force as his inexperienced team comes off an embarrassing loss.
Prediction: Cote d’Ivoire is going to have trouble breaking through North Korea’s defense, while the North Koreans have shown the ability to threaten on the counter attack. Whereas North Korea could salvage their World Cup with a win on Friday, Cote d’Ivoire’s Cup is probably already gone. North Korea 1, Cote d’Ivoire 0 would be a function of circumstance more than talent.
Spain versus Chile, Pretoria, 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Where They Stand: Chile is on top of Group H with six points but is not guaranteed to advance. If they lose to Spain, Switzerland wins, and the difference in scores (between them and Switzerland) is more than two goals, they could finish third. On the other hand, Chile only needs a draw to win Group H.
Spain, though they stumbled in their first match, controls where they finish. If they beat Chile, they advance, and as long as their goal difference is as good as Switzerland’s, they’ll win the group.
Player(s) To Watch, Spain: The Spanish will get Andrés Iniesta back. The midfielder suffered a leg injury against Switzerland and missed the Honduras match. Coming off an injury-marred season for Barcelona, Iniesta has gone a long time without a consistent run of matches. He may not get that run in this tournament, but being an important part of Spain's team, Iniesta needs to get back in the squad and start re-forming his partnership with Xavi Hernández so Spain can start playing to their potential.
Player(s) To Watch, Chile: With Humberto Suazo set to miss this match, Chile’s void in the middle of attack could resurface. Whereas that void was not enough to derail the team against Honduras or Switzerland, it could prevent Chile from meaningfully threatening Spain.
To fill that void, Jorge Valdivia will have to improve upon his performance against Honduras (his other start of the tournament) and move-on from his effort versus Switzerland, where his most meaningful contribution was being carded for diving.
Prediction: Chile’s style has won over fans but they haven’t been able to convert their play into goals. Spain seems to have been awaken by Switzerland, and while they now seem more vulnerable and troubled then we had previously imagined, a Spain 3, Chile 0 result will be motivated by the better team wanting a decisive, group-winning result.
Switzerland versus Honduras, Bloemfontein, 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN2
Where They Stand: Honduras has been derailed by injuries as much as the competition, leaving the Catarachos with no points after two matches and needing something miraculous to happen in order to make the knockout round. Spain has to lose, Honduras has to win, and goal differences need to turn.
Switzerland’s path to the next round is a straight forward. If they beat Honduras by two, they’re in. If they beat Honduras by one, they’ll need help from the Chile-Spain match. If they draw, they’ll need Spain to lose. If they lose, they’re out unless Chile wins big and Switzerland’s loss is close.
Player(s) To Watch, Switzerland: Captain Alexander Frei returned for the Chile match, and although the early red card to Valon Behrami kept him (and his teammates) from making an impact, Frei is set-up to have a big role against Honduras: leading the Swiss attack; pairing with Blaise N'fuko to get the most out of the Seattle-bound striker; keeping his charges focused on getting a two goal victory.
Player(s) To Watch, Honduras: Am I allowed to say not applicable?
It’s been a long run-up to the World Cup for Honduras. They’re without Carlo Costly and Júlio César de Leon. David Suazo is just now getting healthy, and if Wilson Palacios is healthy, he certainly seems tired. That leaves Amado Guevara from Honduras’s name players, but with the Hondurans unable to muster anything going forward, Guevara’s presence has been marginalized.
A direct kick from Ramon Nunez in stoppage time of their first half of play is their only meaningful chance on goal, and against Chile and Spain, they had no meaningful possession. Switzerland’s style should give them more of the ball on Friday, but it’s unclear what Honduras can do with it.
Prediction: Although the Hondurans seem to be in bad shape, Switzerland needs two goals, and Honduras was able to hold Chile to one. You could see Switzerland 2, Honduras 0 thanks to a late, desperation goal from the Swiss, but even a wounded, Honduras is capable of holding them to one goal.
