The end of the Round of 16 sees the last of the favorites, Spain, looking to book their place in the quarterfinals. To do so, they will have to eliminate Spain's latest, greatest adopted son, Real Madrid star Cristiano Ronaldo, who leads 2006 semifinalists Portugal into the match-up in Cape Town.
World Cup 2010 Day 19 Schedule, Preview, Predictions: Filling Out The Quarterfinal Bracket
Spain is the last of the pre-tournament favorites to get their chance at the quarterfinals. In the day’s second match, they take on Portugal, looking toward a Saturday match against the winner of Paraguay-Japan.
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Tuesday's matches in South Africa:
Paraguay versus Japan, Pretoria, 10:00 a.m. Eastern, ESPN
Where They Stand: Paraguay finished first in Group F, though they won only one of their three matches, defeating Slovakia in their second match while getting draws against Italy and New Zealand.
Player(s) To Watch, Paraguay: Paraguay's name players are in attack, with all four of their star strikers - Lucas Barrios, Oscar Cardozo, Roque Santa Cruz, Nelson Valdez - getting starts in group play. But against a Japanese team that has been able to choke matches with numbers in midfield, Cristian Riveros and Victor Cáceres - Paraguay's central midfielders - will be Paraguay's most important players, particularly of Gerardo Martino starts three strikers.
With Japan setting-up their midfield conservatively - having their players sit back, apply little pressure, and congest the field where their opponents would approach the attacking third - Riveros will feel the brunt of this responsibility, being the man asked to roll the ball through the Japanese defense.
Player(s) To Watch, Japan: After his performance against Denmark, Keisuke Honda is on the verge of grabbing the semi-coveted breakout player of the tournament honor, a trophy I've never seen but hear so much about. With the opening goal against Denmark along with the skill exhibited to set-up the third, Honda has done what his bleached blonde hair indented to do: set him apart.
Nominally an attacking midfielder (sometimes winger), Honda is playing Takeshi Okada’s striker in a 4-5-1 formation, a move that furrowed brows at the tournament’s onset but now seems to have given Japan the striker they have so desperately sought. He is not playing a traditional striker’s role, often dropping deep into attack, but that will only serve to augment Japan’s advantages in midfield.
Prediction: The Denmark result should give Paraguay reason to worry, as their talent distributes on the pitch much like a Dane's, but Paraguay's midfield will be better equipped to break through the Japanese, and in a tournament where the only losses by South American teams have been to Brazil and Spain, a Paraguay 2, Japan 1 could put a fourth CONMEBOL team into the quarterfinals.
Spain versus Portugal, Cape Town, 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Where They Stand: Spain won Group H, coming back from an opening match loss to Switzerland with wins over Honduras and Chile, avoiding a Round of 16 meeting with Brazil. Instead, they get their Iberian cousins, against whom they may have to play without midfielder Xabi Alonso, whose injury is being seen as an unfortunate blessing by those in Spain who have questioned coach Vincente del Bosque's simultaneous use of him and Sergio Busquets in deep midfield.
Portugal finished second in Group G with one win (over North Korea) and two scoreless draws, one of two teams to navigate group play without conceding a goal. Their defending stands to get even more stout, with defensive midfielder Pepe making an hour-long, initial tournament appearance against Spain.
Farther up the pitch, Deco looks ready to return from a hip problem that kept the playmaker out of the preceding two matches.
Spain, Going Forward: David Villa has been the brightest star on a team that will also feature midfielders Xavi Hernández, Andrés Iniesta and Alonso along with striker Fernando Torres, who has been poor as he tries to work his way back from knee surgery. Between his struggles and the Alonso issues, Spain's failing to inspire the same concern from opponents that they did during their perfect qualifying run.
Those struggles are likely to continue through a match against a Portugal team that sets-up conservatively, augmenting central defense strength (Ricardo Carvalho, Bruno Alves) by deploying a center half in defensive midfield. On their best day Spain would have trouble with the Carvalho-Alves-Pepe triangle in the middle of Portugal's defense, but without their attack playing close to its potential, this could be a frustrating match.
Spain's bench - with players like David Silva, Juan Mata, Fernando Llorente, Cesc Fabregas, and Xavi Martínez - may be vital in adding the missing piece del Bosque needs to break through Portugal.
Portugal, Going Forward: Cristiano Ronaldo will be matched-up against his Real Madrid teammate, right back Sergio Ramos, possibly preventing Ramos from contributing to Spain's attack. Even if Ronaldo's able to manage Ramos, center halves Carles Puyol and Gerard Piqué have had success at the club level over the last two years against the Portuguese star.
Beyond Ronaldo, the Seleccao’s leading scorer, Thiago, may be pushed back to the bench by Deco’s return, a move which would move the attack away from being a direct, counter attacking side back to the craftier side that’s had trouble finding goals.
Prediction: Portugal has pieces that could cause trouble, but since the summer of 2008, they’ve rarely put together completely matches that would be able to take-down a team like Spain. Carlos Queiroz’s teams tend to look more like the side that drew Cote d’Ivoire than the side that tore apart North Korea. Seeing as that was only North Korea, Spain 2, Portugal 1 is one of Portugal’s best-case scenarios.
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