The NBA draft isn’t even a full week in the rearview mirror, but the lists of top prospects for 2011 are already pouring in from various experts. It’s a completely futile exercise -- one made even more futile when you try to actually picture next year’s draft picks with teams given the amount of movement we’ll see next month -- but it does paint a picture for college fans. Who should we expect to only stick around for one year? There were seven first-year players drafted in the first round and three more drafted in the second. Can this year’s group top that figure?
↵↵Harrison Barnes is the almost unquestioned No. 1 for next season. Barnes, a UNC commit who famously announced his intention to join the Heels via Skype, is drawing rave reviews this summer. (See here and here.) Of the three prominent 2011 draft lists I checked out from Fox’s Jeff Goodman, CBS’s Gary Parrish and Draft Express, only Goodman didn’t have Barnes at No. 1. (By the way, I’m saving these mocks for a year from now as something of an experiment.) Barnes, barring a catastrophic disappointment, sounds like a lock to be a one-and-done player, so enjoy him -- even in network TV prime time. A brief look at Mr. Barnes giving everyone the business last summer:↵
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Enjoy Your Time With These Guys Because They Won’t Be Around For Long
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Closing in behind Barnes is Perry Jones, a Baylor frosh-to-be, who is No. 1 on Goodman’s list, No. 2 on Draft Express and No. 3 for Parrish. Ready to carve out some TV time for Baylor based on that bit of news? No? Watch this and rethink that position:↵
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↵From there, the consensus among these three experts gets a little bit blurry. Goodman and Draft Express like Ohio State big man Jared Sullinger at No. 3 and No. 5, respectively, but Parrish puts him at No. 11. Sullinger is an absolute monster for someone his age, reportedly measuring 6-foot-9 and weighing in at 286 lbs. over the weekend at the Amare Stoudemire Camp. Kansas guard Josh Selby gets high marks from all three analysts, ranking No. 5 (Parrish) No. 6 (Goodman) and No. 7 (DX). Could he be the second coming of Xavier Henry? Duke point guard Kyrie Irvin, who Jay Williams said is better than John Wall, is the only other consensus top 10 draftee among the freshmen. Goodman rates him all the way up at No. 4 while Parrish and DX put Irving at No. 9.↵↵In all, Jeff Goodman is most optimistic about the freshman, putting 12 in the top 30. Parrish is just behind him with 11. Draft Express lists just seven, but there seem to be some errors of omission like Brandon Knight, so that number could go up. ↵
↵↵In the first year of the age minimum, 2006, just two freshmen were drafted. In 2007, that number jumped to eight. Twelve were selected in 2008, but the figure dropped to just four in 2009. With 10 in 2010, the numbers are on the rise again. If these predictions are any indication, the NCAA and the NBA could flirt with another double-digit season of one-and-done players. The question remains whether one-and-done will even be an option under the next CBA.↵
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