World Cup 2010, Spain Vs. Portugal Preview: Tournament Co-Favorites
Portugal is assumed to be a challenge because they rank the third in the world (per FIFA), though nobody really believes this team is better than the Dutch, Germans or Argentinians. That is not to say that Portugal can't win, but this is not the battle of the titans that the country's names might indicate.
Portugal's defense is formidable, but without a lot of resources and penache in attack, they are only going to go as far as Cristiano Ronaldo takes them - be it by scoring goals himself or allowing his teammates to take advantage of the attention he garners. Against Spain, though, that will require a prodigious rise by a series of attackers who, in comparison to their opponents and their illustrious teammate, seem a side that may have to settle for a Round of 16 appearance.
Spain, Going Forward: The nation with the most depth in creative players has been unable to consistently create goals. David VIlla's three tallies have been either individual efforts (the first goal against Honduras) or aberrational (the second Honduras goal, the goal against Chile). When Andrés Iniesta scored against Chile, Spain finally had a well-crafted goal. Too bad it was half-way through their third World Cup match; else, people might be convinced Spain's problems were solved.
Alas, they are not, as the team has lost its presence in the penalty box and have ceased playing with width. Fernando Torres, now a nominal lone striker with David Villa playing wider, has not been good and looks to have been rushed back from a knee injury. And although Villa is starting in a wide left position, you won't see many crosses from the man soon to become Spain's all-time leading scorer. Villa will attack from wide by do his damage in the middle of the pitch.
Without David Silva or Jesus Navas in the probable starting lineup, Spain has little means by which to stretch defenses and create room for Xavi Hennández and Andrés Iniesta. And unless Torres can become more of a threat, the room for the midfielders will become further constricted as players along the back stop worrying about a penalty area threat.
But coach Vincente del Bosque has options. He is not cursed to a striker-less, wing-less formation. If things aren't working, del Bosque could bring on Silva and Navas for Torres and Xabi Alonso and have a completely different attack. And against a Portugal team that has had trouble scoring goals, he should have time to decide if or when he was to make the change.
Portugal, Going Forward: Cristiano Ronaldo will garner all the attention, and rightfully so. While people complain that he doesn't score enough in big matches, there's a very plain reason why he doesn't. He is always indisputably the center of the opposition's attention, and today (when he attacks down the left) you'll see Sergio Ramos on him, Sergio Busquets running from central midfield to help, Carles Puyol (or possibly Gerard Pique) neglecting some other responsibilities to be ready if/when Ronaldo moves past his first mark.
It's what the other Portgual players do to make opponents pay of this compensation which determines whether the Seleccao is successful, and since Carlos Queiroz has only been able to craft mildly successful plans, his team has only been mildly successful since he took over. The 7-0 rout of North Korea was an outlier. Unfortunately, being shut out by Cote d'Ivoire and Brazil was not. Whether it be Deco trying to orchestrate in the middle or the Portuguese relying on superior talent on the wings, there is no consistent, reliable, non-Ronaldo plan.
That, not Ronaldo’s talent, is the reason people say that Portugal will only do as far as Ronaldo can carry them.
How The Match Turns: Whether it be from tactics or talent, Portugal’s defense is legitimately good, and del Bosque will have to play with his team if he’s to craft the decisive result the Spanish media and public craves. The longer it takes him to find a way to do that, the longer he gives Ronaldo to get a grip on the match and turn it to Portugal.
