Breaking Down The 2010 NBA Draft, Using Statistics

Age matters in the NBA Draft. That’s why the Wesley Johnson-at-No. 3-to-the-Nets rumors never made sense (except, perhaps, as a smoke screen to try to get the village idiot of NBA GMs, David Kahn, to trade up a spot under the assumption that he covets the Syracuse wingman). After all, do you think Johnson is better now than Derrick Favors will be in five years (Johnson is about to turn 23; Favors is 18)?

Which brings us to the small forwards in this year’s draft. Much as we’re done with the big men and the guards, we came up with a simple model that tries to predict how good a player will be in three seasons based on their college stats (more in depth explanation here). For small forwards, the statistical categories we included were “upside” (relating their marginal age and height), their three-point percentage, their offensive and defensive rebounding rates, their free throw rates (how often they got to the line), adjusted steals and blocks, pure point (a substitute for assist-to-turnover ratio) and their marginal scoring (measuring how well they scored above average production). Looking back at the 2005-07 drafts, it did quite well, tabbing Kevin Durant, Danny Granger, Rudy Gay and Jared Dudley as the best small forwards available, in that order (it also would have screamed not to take Adam Morrison or Corey Brewer in the lottery).

It’s workout season. That time of year when verticals and wingspans distract from points and rebounds (but seriously, Luke Babbitt jumped 37 inches?) But through all the workout porn, it’s important to keep in mind what the players actually did on the court.

And with that in mind, we’ve turned our attention to creating a simple model to project how good the current batch of big man prospects might be three years out in the league, based on their college stats. Of course, this is a task fraught with enormous difficulty; sometimes good college players just can’t find the right fit, lose motivation, or succumb to personal issues, and other times players just work their way into the league.