You might just have heard that some guy is going to make his major league debut for the Washington Nationals tonight. There has been a little bit of press about it, to the degree that anything less than a perfect game -- or, at least, a no-hitter -- will be regarded as a massive letdown on the scale of The Matrix Reloaded.
But realistically, what can we expect from Strasburg in his first appearance? There’s a measure of a starting pitcher called “Game Score,” invented by Bill James, which takes innings pitched, hits, strikeouts and runs allowed, and comes up with a number that’s almost always between zero and 100 [there are, rarely, negative Game Scores]. After the jump, we’ll take a look at major league debuts and see what can be expected.
What Stephen Strasburg Has To Live Up To: A Look At The Best Pitcher Debuts Since 2000
Last year, 19 starters made their major league debuts in the National League. The Game Score for these ranged from 16 (the Padres’ Cesar Carrillo, 2.1 IP, 8 ER) to 64 (Antonio Bastardo of the Phillies, 6 IP, 1 ER on four hits and a walk). The median value was 51: that would be an outing like fellow Nationals’ pitcher Craig Stammen on May 21st, when he went 6.1 innings against the Pirates, allowing four runs on four hits and a walk, striking out three.
But even the high end of that scale seems a little pessimistic for someone being touted in certain circles as the second coming of [insert Hall of Fame pitcher’s name here]. So, for your consideration, here are the ten best major-league debuts by a starting pitcher since 2000, in order of Game Score -- the date link goes to the box score for that game.
| Rk | Player | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Cueto | 2008-04-03 | CIN | ARI | W 3-2 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 92 | 68 | 81 |
| 2 | Jason Jennings | 2001-08-23 | COL | NYM | W 10-0 | SHO9 ,W | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 124 | 75 | 81 |
| 3 | Carlos Hernandez | 2001-08-18 | HOU | PIT | W 3-0 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 102 | 62 | 79 |
| 4 | Brett Myers | 2002-07-24 | PHI | CHC | W 4-2 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 90 | 57 | 78 |
| 5 | Brian Tollberg | 2000-06-20 | SDP | ARI | W 3-1 | GS-7 ,W | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 94 | 60 | 77 |
| 6 | Paul Maholm | 2005-08-30 | PIT | MIL | W 6-0 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 108 | 70 | 76 |
| 7 | Troy Mattes | 2001-06-19 | MON | NYM | L 1-4 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 82 | 47 | 74 |
| 8 | Chris Saenz | 2004-04-24 | MIL | STL | W 3-1 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 93 | 58 | 72 |
| 9 | Kazuhisa Ishii | 2002-04-06 | LAD | COL | W 9-2 | GS-6 ,W | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 95 | 57 | 72 |
| 10 | Josh Beckett | 2001-09-04 | FLA | CHC | W 8-1 | GS-6 ,W | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 85 | 54 | 72 |
As for the all-time best? Well, Strasburg would probably need to throw a one-hit complete game shut-out, with one walk and a dozen strikeouts. Because that’s what Juan Marichal did on his Giants debut on July 19, 1960. If he manages to match that, even I will have to be impressed.
