General

Predicting MLB Success For This Season’s Top Ten Based On When They Were Drafted

Jun 8, 2010, 7:25 PM UTC

Everyone knows that, of all the professional sports in America, making it big in Major League Baseball is the hardest for an athlete to achieve. Thus, the flip-side of that is the fact that the MLB draft is, at times, a complete crap shoot. With so many players drafted taken in so many rounds, the success stories will be completely overwhelmed by the busts. It’s just basic math. So, let’s focus on the very top of the draft. How have teams fared when picking the elite players each season?â†µ

â†µâ†µ

â†µâ†µThis year’s top ten included five pitchers, three outfielders and two shortstops. Those draftees also consisted of five college players, four high school players and a junior college player. There’s no chance that they’ll all be MLB superstars, and there’s not even much chance that they’ll all even make an MLB roster in their careers. So Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon, Manny Machado, Christian Colon, Drew Promeranz, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino Deshields Jr., Karsten Whitson and Michael Choice, which of you will become future stars and which will be flameout busts? Your future may be tied to your draft order.â†µ

â†µâ†µAccording to the numbers on Baseball-Reference.com’s draft tracker, there is a 91% chance that the top pick in the draft – in this case the Nationals pick of Harper – will make it to the majors. Now, some of that is a self-fulfilling prophecy of being the number one pick (teams have a tendency to rush top picks through the system), but it’s hard to argue with – once Stephen Strasburg takes the mound tonight – 40 of the 44 first overall picks making it to the show. Of the four who have no major league service time, one is 2008 pick Tim Beckham who is in high-A for the Rays while another is 2004 selection Matt Bush who is still in the minors, hoping to get a shot but slowly running out of time. â†µ

â†µâ†µNow, getting to the majors doesn’t guarantee that a player will be a star. Of those 44 first overall picks – Danny Goodwin was picked in 1971 as the top pick but did not sign, but was picked again in 1975 – 22 of them have a career WAR (wins above replacement) of 10 or higher. For a point of reference, a WAR of eight or better in any given year is listed as MVP caliber, with five or higher at All-Star level, two or higher at a starter level and 0-2 at the reserve level. Below zero means you stink. So, a player that has a 1.0 WAR average and plays ten seasons would have a career WAR of 10. So would a player who has been in the league for just two seasons with an average WAR of 5.0. One guy is a young All-Star and one is a veteran role player. Obviously the context of each player’s career is important. For this exercise, let’s just continue with the broad generalizations, shall we?â†µ

â†µ

â†µOf the 44 top overall picks, nine have a negative WAR, including the likes of Twins outfielder Delmon Young (drafted by the Rays and then eventually traded, for whatever that's worth). Of course WAR does not tell you everything, as David Price has a 1.4 WAR, attributable to his limited time in the league.â†µ

â†µâ†µIn total, the top overall picks have a collective WAR of 732.9, or 18.3 WAR per major leaguer.â†µ

â†µâ†µThe second overall picks have a collective WAR of 466, or just 12.3 per major leaguer. Seven of those 45 selections – including players in the 2007, 2008 and 2009 drafts – have no MLB service time, while eight who have made it to the majors have a WAR below zero with 16 recording a WAR above 10. Again, WAR does not tell you everything, as someone like Mark Prior has a 13.7 WAR, higher than B.J. Upton and just below Justin Verlander. Then there’s a guy like Alex Gordon, who is pretty darn close to a bust right now in his career, with a 4.1 WAR. Perhaps expectations can make someone a bust as much as production, or lack thereof.â†µ

â†µâ†µThe third overall picks have a collective WAR of 421.3 or 12.0 per major leaguer. Of the 45 players drafted third, 35 made the show, with three of the ten who haven’t coming from the 2007-2009 drafts. In other words, the jury is still out on them, but for the likes of 2002 pick Christopher Gruler of the Reds or 2003 selection Kyle Sleeth of the Tigers, who both befell injuries that ended their careers while in the minors, we have some lovely parting gifts for you. â†µ

â†µâ†µOf the 35 who made it to the majors, 15 have a career WAR above 10 while 11 have a WAR below zero, most notably Devil Rays bust Dewon Brazelton.â†µ

â†µâ†µFor those drafted fourth, 34 of 45 players played in the majors, including 2008 pick Brian Matusz of the Orioles. Nine of the 34 players have a negative WAR while 13 have a career WAR above 10. That said, those in the majors average 14 per player (474.5 WAR for the group) which is cumulatively higher than the second or third selections.â†µ

â†µâ†µNow comes the anomaly, as the fifth pick in the draft has been the most consistent bust of the top eight picks, with just 27 of the 45 picks making it to the majors. That number includes the 2007 and 2008 picks, which actually skews the WAR a bit as Giants catcher Buster Posey (2008) is one of nine players to have a negative WAR. In total, those in the majors have a total of 249 WAR with just six players recording a career WAR above 10. It’s also is the first group without any players breaking the career mark of 50 WAR. Sorry Cleveland fans, if you believe these trends, the future doesn’t look great for Pomeranz.â†µ

â†µâ†µHere’s an indication why totaling up the WAR can be totally flawed. Those drafted sixth have a WAR of 462.3, or 14.0 per major leaguer. That said, Barry Bonds had a career WAR of 171.8 (by comparison Alex Rodriguez is listed at 99.0). Derek Jeter, Gary Sheffield, Zack Greinke and a host of other solid players were drafted sixth, but Bonds clearly buoyed these numbers a bit. There are just eight players with a WAR above 10 and 12 with a negative WAR. Of the 45 drafted, 33 have made the show.â†µ

â†µâ†µA host of young stars were drafted seventh, including Nick Markakis, Troy Tulowitzki, Prince FIelder and Clayton Kershaw. That said, just 31 of the 45 have made the majors and the total WAR of 193 (6.2 per major leaguer) is led by Frank Thomas’ 75.9. Just eight others drafted in this slot have a WAR above 10 with 13 players below zero.â†µ

â†µâ†µThose selected eighth aren’t much better once they make the majors, with fewer having done so to this point. Seven players have a WAR above 10 while 12 of the 29 who have made the majors are below zero. 2009 draft pick Mike Leake of the Reds, who went right to the majors, has what we’ll call an incomplete despite his fantastic early numbers.â†µ

â†µâ†µThe ninth slot is where it starts to really become a role of the dice as just 25 of the 45 players have made the majors. Since 2000, seven of the 10 players drafted ninth have yet to make it to the majors (it should be noted that list includes just one college player and six high school players). Seven players have a career WAR above 10 while eight have a number less than zero. The average per player in the league is higher than those drafted seventh or eighth, however, as those 25 total 199 WAR (8.0 per player).â†µ

â†µâ†µTo round out the list, teams should be happy to be drafting 10th. Of the 45 players selected with the last pick in the top ten, 37 of them have made the majors, including last year’s pick in Drew Storen of the Nationals. Twelve of the 37 in the majors have a negative WAR, while 13 have a WAR above ten. The entire group averages 10 WAR per major leaguer, totaling 368.3. Congratulations Michael Choice, you’ve joined the ranks of Mark McGwire, Robin Ventura, Ben Sheets and Tm Lincecum, among several other success stories.â†µ

â†µâ†µAs stated above, WAR is completely dependent on the length of a player’s career, though some might say an average player over ten years is more valuable than a superstar who plays just two or three. The better indicator in this case would be the number of players from each slot who made it to the majors at all. â†µ

â†µâ†µIn the end, its impossible to know if any of this year’s class will have a successful career based on those drafted in the same slot before them. Having said that, if I’m a couple of those guys picked this year, I wouldn’t be buying a huge house with my signing bonus just yet.â†µ

â†µ

This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

See More: