Padres Out Of First: Is This The Beginning Of The End?

It took a bit longer than commentators such as myself expected, but after a run of 44 games, dating back to April 20th, the San Diego Padres finally lost their hold on first place. This was a result of Ike Davis and his 11th-inning homer in New York, which sent the Padres to a 2-1 defeat to the Mets, and also Manny Ramirez’s eighth-inning RBI at Dodger Stadium, lifting LA to a 1-0 win over St. Louis.

The Dodgers had been nipping at the Padres’ heels for more than three weeks, since a three-game sweep at Petco from May 14-16. The had never more than two games behind them, but San Diego had fended them off until last night. The Padres do seem to be cooling off: they had a 15-8 record in April, followed by a 15-12 in May, but last night’s loss means they are only 4-4 so far in June. Is this the end of their surprising role in the NL West?

Tom Verducci doesn’t think so, saying, “The Padres’ pitching and defense are good enough to keep them from falling out of the race,” pointing in particular to a bullpen that has a major-league best ERA of 2.61. However, he does express concern about the offense, and that does seem to the San Diego’s potential Achilles’ heel. Even taking park factors into account, their OPS+ is only 95.

As long as their pitching remains strong, this shouldn’t be a problem. But can Clayton Richard, Jon Garland and the bullpen continue to produce at the unexpected levels they have? That seems questionable, with the team’s overall BA on balls in play already 24 points below league average. Those balls which have been finding fielders will probably start to drop in eventually, and when they do, it may be up to the Padres’ management to bring in a bat - perhaps for the outfield - that can beef up the hitting to compensate.