Dumbing down the MLS playoff race: Eight teams, three spots

Aug 23, 2010, 1:41 PM UTC

Chicago Fire coach Carlos de los Cobos; his team is better positioned than some of the sides still trying to scrap their way into the playoffs.

I’m going to seriously dumb down the MLS playoff race here, wielding the magic wand of wild assumption.

We are into the final third of the season, as all but two teams have played either 20 or 21 matches. (The season is 30 matches per team.)

So here is an overly simplified look at the post-season race based on these wild-ass assumptions. Strange things can and do happen, so we may have to revisit these "givens," but let’s not get bogged down for now.

I’m declaring that teams with at least 34 points "In." That list is Columbus Crew, New York Red Bulls, Los Angeles Galaxy, Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas. Congratulations!

I’m declaring teams with fewer than 21 point as "Out." That list is Philadelphia Union, D.C. United and Chivas USA. You’ll get ‘em next year, guys.

So where does that leave the bulk of the "race" in a 16-team league? Here’s where:

Pull five teams off the top, three off the bottom and we’re left with eight sides scrapping for three spots. So there’s a heck of a mad dash ahead.

We hear about “six-pointers.” That’s where two contending clubs meet. Ostensibly, a win in that match adds three points to one ledger and keeps the other team from adding the potential points to their total. The math doesn’t exactly work out as such, but again, let’s not get bogged down in details.

So the six-pointers ahead will be any matches pitting Toronto FC, Chicago Fire, Kansas City Wizards, New England Revolution, Seattle Sounders, San Jose Earthquakes, Colorado Rapids and Houston Dynamo. Delicious, no?

Clearly, some teams are better positioned than others.

Chicago, having played a league-low 18 matches, has a higher margin for error. Plus, two new DPs (Freddie Ljungberg and Nery Castillo) should make the team better as they work into the fold.

On the other end, New England has almost zero margin for error. If Steve Nicol’s Revs can find a hot striker they might possibly make a late run, the way FC Dallas did a year ago. But it would take nothing less than six and possibly seven wins (a mark of something like 6-2-2) over the remaining 10 matches. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not so much. I just don’t see a team with a minus-13 goal difference assembling such a run.

Still, it all makes for an exciting few weeks in eight different cities.

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