Kyrie Irving Doubles Duke’s Chances Of Getting Through NCAA Bracket, Says Analysis

Kyrie Irving will indeed play for Duke in the Blue Devils’ March Madness premiere on Friday, albeit in a reserve role with limited minutes. Irving hasn’t played since December, when he broke his toe. A cast, a walking boot and a few warm-up teases in the ACC Tournament later, and Irving’s ready to go.

It’s a big deal not just because of how incredible a prospect Irving is considered, but because of how unbelievably well Kyrie played in those eight games in November and December. Irving was among the most productive players in college basketball, and made a fantastic Duke team -- defending national champs, you know -- even better.

Duke earned a No. 1 seed largely without Irving. Now that he’s back, how much better will the Devils be in the tournament? Nate Silver of the New York Times’ Five Thirty Eight crunched the numbers, and believes Irving’s return doubles the odds of Duke repeating as champs.

Silver used WinShares based on Irving’s eight games played to assess how much he boosts Duke’s point margin on average. It works out that this analysis suggested Kyrie is worth an almost stunning 4.8 points per game for Duke. The translation to odds of marching through the NCAA bracket is just as incredible:

Our model, for instance, estimates that Duke would have a 23 percent chance of winning the tournament if Irving were certain to play. (The model is conservative and gives players what amounts to half-credit for returning from injury, on the assumption that they could be sluggish; it applies a full penalty if the player goes from healthy to hurt.) That would make Duke the favorite over Ohio State, which has about a 20 percent chance to win.

By contrast, Duke would have just a 12 percent chance of winning without Irving, only about half as much.

Without Irving, Duke would have a 1-in-8 chance to win the tournament. With Irving -- assuming Kyrie plays at 50-percent of his November-December level -- those odds jump to 1-in-4.