Pinning down Major League Soccer’s elusive MVP chase

It truly is stunning how little clarity there is in Major League Soccer’s MVP chase. I can best describe it in four words: “All over the place.”

With one round of matches remaining (10 games total), here’s a list of everyone who, in my opinion, has a shot at winning Major League Soccer’s big award, or who has some been named recently by a noted news source as an MVP candidate (listed alphabetically):

• Osvaldo Alonso
• Kyle Beckerman
• David Beckham
• Brad Davis
• Dwayne De Rosario
• Landon Donovan
• Thierry Henry
• Jack Jewsbury
• Nick LaBrocca
• Sebastien LeToux
• Faryd Mondragon
• Fredy Montero
• Mauro Rosales
• Brek Shea

I’ll save you the trouble of counting. That’s 14. And you know what they always say: “If you have 14 good Major League Soccer MVP candidates, then you don’t really have one.”

Ok, nobody says that. But I might start.

So, click through to see the list again, and to see where I rank each one in this hard-to-define chase (along with a comment on why.)

I’ll list them now in one of three categories: “good chance,” “some chance” and “no chance.”

Good chance

Osvaldo Alonso: Seattle’s holding midfielder is a relatively late addition to this list. He’s been the Sounders’ steadiest presence wire to wire (given Fredy Montero’s streaky ways and Mauro Rosales’ late-season injury absence.) His fantastic U.S. Open Cup contributions should not be considered in MVP voting. But humans are fallen and imperfect and it’s hard not to add those into the mix. On the other hand, it’s always so difficult to quantify a good holding midfielder’s contributions. (You’ll see that again later in this article.)

David Beckham: I know a lot of people might cringe at this because of personal feelings for Beckham. And if I’m being honest, I wrote earlier this year about his self-serving jaunts to England, and how it seemed disrespectful toward and hardly beneficial to his MLS club. But I have to be objective, and this guy’s midfield passing has been extraordinary all year. It really is on a different level.

Brad Davis: Houston’s left-sided midfielder shares two key elements with Beckham. They currently share the league lead in assists with 15. And they are the league’s top dead ball specialists. If your criteria is actual value to team then Davis will be on top, because Houston probably isn’t in the playoffs without his contributions. No one can say the same about Beckham; the Galaxy is surely strong enough to have punched their ticket without him.

Thierry Henry: Alexi Lalas called Henry his current choice on last night’s ESPN broadcast, and these kinds of endorsements resonate. But I’m a little less sure that his chances remain in this category. Observers have pegged New York as listless underachievers. Henry may not be the worst violator, but some of the mud being slung the Red Bulls’ way is going to splatter him. Plus, his red card last week (eliminating the Frenchman from a match New York needs to win or tie) won’t be forgotten.

Brek Shea: Like Davis, Shea’s contributions (11 goals, 4 assists) have been critical to his team’s fortunes. His goals are evenly dispersed, and none came on penalty kicks. His age could work against him; voters might tend to see the 21 (years of age) and lean towards an older guy, someone who won’t have as many chances to gather the honor going forward.

Some chance:

Dwayne De Rosario: He probably would be my choice but for one thing: DDR’s team seems unlikely to make the playoffs. (Unwritten MVP rule: teams that don’t make the playoffs don’t produce true MVP candidates. It is what it is.) United must win its last two matches and hope New York loses to gain a playoff spot. Stranger things have definitely happened. Still, until United gets into the post-season, this isn’t even a debate worth having.

Landon Donovan: He’s won it before. And he’s won about everything a U.S. soccer play can win. So, there could be a bit of voter fatigue working against the Galaxy attacker, who has 12 goals and 3 assists. And a lesser season on the national team (by his high standards) will seep uncontrollably into the minds of voters.

Fredy Montero: A season of 12 goals and 8 assists is a season to be proud of. But attention that could fall to teammate Mauro Rosales could serve to split the “Seattle vote,” and that will dent the young Colombian’s chances.

Mauro Rosales: Seattle’s fantastic right-sided attacker has five goals and 13 assists, and would probably have greater numbers but for the month he just missed. As that month came at a time when voters are considering their choices, the timing was awful for his MVP bid.

Sebastien LeToux: “Seba” just wasn’t getting it done earlier this year; things just didn’t seem to click in his on-field relationship with Carlos Ruiz. Today, we look and see that he has 11 goals and 9 assists, totals that are approaching MVP numbers, at least. Much of that production has come over the last two months, as his efforts have kicked Philly up a notch, putting Peter Nowak’s team on the upswing going into the playoffs. All that said, his lack of recognition over six months means he has little chance now. I will say this: the Union finishes at New York. A huge night in the nation’s biggest media market could push him right up into the “Good” chance category.

Slim chance

Kyle Beckerman: Holding midfielders don’t win MVPs, which I can’t stand (and have written about previously, in this piece and in previous, longer stories.) Beckerman was actually gaining some momentum, but last week’s head butt stunt killed whatever slim chance he had collected.

Jack Jewsbury: Portland’s two-way midfielder has been fantastic. But the Timbers playoff chances, as I like to say, have one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel. So, Jewsbury will have to settle for a hardy “‘atta boy!”

Nick LaBrocca: See “Jewsbury” above. A great season for a guy that I’ve had on the underrated list for years. He had another good game last night against the Galaxy. But lesser heralded midfielders whose teams don’t make the playoffs have zero MVP chance.

Faryd Mondragon: Look, he’s been good. And that his leadership has assisted in the Philly turnaround cannot be in dispute. But I’m not as sure as some people seem to be that he’s an MVP candidate. Heck, I can name three or four MLS goalkeepers who have had better seasons. So, league MVP? No way.