The Cardinals Aren’t Doing Themselves Any Favors
R Furcal triples on a fly ball to center field
D Freese doubles on a line drive to right field
Those hits led off the first and second innings for St. Louis, respectively. And still, they haven't scored against Cliff Lee.
What would we expect them to score? We can consult this handy run expectancy matrix. Having a runner on third and nobody out leads to an average of 1.3 runs. Having a runner on second and nobody out leads to an average of 1.1 runs.
Those numbers, of course, are averages, and do not apply when facing a pitcher like Cliff Lee. Still, here’s the take-home message: the Cardinals should have at least one or two runs, but instead they have no runs, and so they’re already facing long odds. You can’t just give away run-scoring opportunities against Lee, because he doesn’t provide them very often.
