We've finally gotten down to the final weekend of the season and while all 10 MLS Cup playoff spots are locked up, all but two teams are locked into their fate. We know the Los Angeles Galaxy have already won the Supporters' Shield and that the Seattle Sounders will be the second seed in the Western Conference. Everything else could change somewhat dramatically based on the weekend's results as six of the eight games can potentially affect the various playoff scenarios, although none involve two teams with something on the line.
Major League Soccer Playoff Scenario Cheat Sheet: Breaking Down Every Scenario For Every Team
Even though the 10 playoff spots are already determined, there are lots of tiebreaker scenarios out there. We break down all of them.
Rather than go race-by-race the way we have in this space before, we’ll go team-by-team as so many of them are involved in one more than one race. Tiebreaker procedures attached at bottom of story.
Playoff race
Here's how the MLS playoff race is shaking out:| Club | Pts | GP | GD | Max | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galaxy | 67 | 33 | 22 | 70 | 0 | 1 |
| Sounders | 60 | 33 | 17 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
| Real Salt Lake | 52 | 33 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| FC Dallas | 52 | 33 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 1 |
| Sporting KC | 48 | 33 | 9 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
| Union | 48 | 34 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
| Crew | 47 | 33 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
| Rapids | 46 | 33 | 2 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
| Red Bulls | 46 | 34 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
| Dynamo | 46 | 33 | 2 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
Real Salt Lake (currently 3rd in West): A win will guaranteed RSL a bye into the conference semifinals where they would face the Sounders. That probably doesn't seem like much of a prize, but it does save them from having to play an extra game. Considering what this team has gone through this year, playing fewer games is probably preferable. Opponent: vs. Portland Timbers, 9 p.m., Saturday (Match Day Live).
FC Dallas (No. 1 wild card): Like RSL, it's debatable which finishing spot is their most preferable. Two straight wins seem to have righted the ship, but that doesn't mean they are itching to play an extra game either. If the standings end up how they are now, they would have to play arch-rival Houston in the first round, a team they went 0-1-1 against this year. Opponent: at San Jose Earthquakes, 10:30 p.m., Saturday (Match Day Live)
Sporting Kansas City (No. 1 East): Considering this team starting out 1-8-1, the fact they are now in position to get the top spot in the Eastern Conference is pretty impressive. Of course, they could still fall as far as the third wild-card spot with a loss. Opponent: at DC United, 7:30 p.m., Saturday (Match Day Live)
Philadelphia Union (No. 2 East): They are already done, but they can still finish as high as No. 1 in the East or the No. 3 wild card. If Sporting were to lose by more than two goals, the Union would leap frog them in the standings. Finishing right were they are is probably their best-case scenario.
Columbus Crew (No. 3 East): As mediocre as they've been all year, it's remarkable that they could still take the top spot in the East. Of course, that would also mean a likely conference semifinal matchup with the top wild card, which might very well be FC Dallas or RSL. Their motivations on Saturday seem pretty much tied to staying out of the wild-card round themselves. Opponent: at Chicago Fire, 8:30 p.m., Saturday (Match Day Live)
Colorado Rapids (No. 2 wild card): With a first-round bye out of reach, they can only move down. The good news is they already have the tiebreaker over the Red Bulls which keeps them from finishing in the No. 10 spot, but the Dynamo can still leap frog them and leave them in the No. 9 spot. That would mean an extra road game against whoever finishes in the No. 2 wild card spot. Opponent: at Vancouver, 7 p.m., Saturday (Match Day Live)
New York Red Bulls (No. 3 wild card): Already done for the season, they are bound to play their wild card game on the road. The only question is if it's against RSL/FCD or someone far less imposing.
Houston Dynamo (No. 4 wild card): No team has a wider range of possibilities than these guys. A win could catapult them into the No. 1 seed in the East, while a loss will leave them as the final wild card. Opponent: vs. Galaxy, 7 p.m., Sunday (Galavision)
Potential tiebreaking scenarios
If RSL and FC Dallas are tied: RSL wins courtesy of their 4 points in head-to-head competition
If Sporting and Union are tied: Whoever has the better overall goal-difference wins, as the teams tied both their head-to-head matchups.
If Sporting and Dynamo are tied: Sporting win courtesy of their 4 points in head-to-head competition.
If Union and Dynamo are tied: Union win based on their 4 points in head-to-head competition
If Sporting, Union and Dynamo are tied: Sporting would win the overall tiebreaker on total goal difference. Both Sporting and the Union got 6 points in that three-way competition, but Sporting would have the better goal-difference in all games.
If Crew and Sporting are tied: The teams each earned 3 points in head-to-head competition, so Sporting would win on goal-difference as long as they don’t lose by nine goals on Saturday.
If Crew and Union are tied: The teams each earned 3 points in head-to-head competition, so Union would win on goal-difference unless they lose by eight goals on Saturday.
If Crew and Dynamo are tied: Crew win based on 4 points in head-to-head competition.
If Crew, Sporting and Union are tied: The teams each claimed six points in three-way competition, so the winner would be determined by overall goal-difference.
If Crew, Dynamo and Rapids are tied: Crew would get the No. 3 spot in East and Dynamo would get No. 2 wild card based on three-way competition (we think).
If the Rapids and Red Bulls are tied: Rapids win based on their 4 points in head-to-head competition.
If Rapids and Dynamo are tied: Rapids win based on their 4 points in head-to-head competition
If Rapids and Crew are tied: Team split their regular-season meetings, so Rapids would win on overall goal-difference
If Rapids, Dynamo and Sporting are tied: Sporting would win on total goal-difference unless Rapids win by more than seven goals on Saturday. Sporting and Rapids each claimed six points in three-way competition.
If Rapids, Dynamo and Red Bulls are tied: Rapids win based on their eight points in three-way competition.
Tiebreaker procedures:
1. The highest position shall be awarded to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points. (head-to-head competition)
2. If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the greater goal difference against all other teams during the regular season. (goal differential)
3. If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team scoring the greatest number of total goals against all other teams during the regular season. (total goals)
4. If the teams are still equal in the standings, the procedures described in this section shall be applied only to games played on the road by each team against all other teams during the regular season. (road 1-3)
5. If the teams are still equal in the standings, the procedures described in this section shall be applied only to games played at home by each team against all other teams during the regular season. (home 1-3)
6. If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the fewest team disciplinary points in the League Fair Play table during the regular season.
7. If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position in the standings shall be determined by the toss of a coin.
8. The first tiebreaker in a three-way tie is also head-to-head, but it is determined via points-per-game versus the other two teams. If two teams are tied in points-per-game head-to-head, the next tie breaker is goal difference.
NOTE: If two clubs remain tied after another club with the same number of points advances during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.
See More:
