Rangers Survive Late Innings To Beat Rays 4-3, Take Game 3

While the Rangers and Rays were battling on the field, Baseball Nation’s writers were analyzing the action. Here are the highlights from Monday’s live blog:

• Colby Lewis, a surprise stud in 2010, took a step back this year. How come? The long ball, as Grant Brisbee explained:

In the eighth, the Rangers turned to one of the most reliable relievers in baseball, Mike Adams. In order to get Adams, they had to part with two quality prospects, and they did it with this situation in mind. Mike Adams was acquired to give the Rangers a shut-down bullpen in the playoffs.

Things got a little furry for Feliz in the ninth after a Sean Rodriguez single with one out, but after Kelly Shoppach worked the count full, he grounded a ball down the third-base line ... right into the no-doubles defense for a double play to end the game.

Buck Martinez in the booth, before Adams had thrown a pitch:

There’s been just one Achilles’ heel, though: Home Runs.

Things were looking bleak for the Tampa Bay nine that afternoon.

They’d just given up four runs in a big game, and entered the bottom of the seventh trailing by three.

It’s well known around these internet parts that hitter vs. pitcher stats are mostly useless.

Is that hyperbole? Probably not. Hitter vs. pitcher stats combine small samples with a context-free sludge of numbers, and they’re often treated as being really, really meaningful by broadcasters and managers.

Hey, it could have been worse.

There seemed to be two good reasons to not start Mitch Moreland in Game 3.

Now, he almost certainly can’t be that terrible against left-handers. He’s got just one home run in 145 plate appearances, and presumably if given more chances he’ll run into a few fastballs, hit a few of them over the fence.

Mike Napoli has been an absolute monster this year. He’s known for being the trinket that was traded for the treasure that is Vernon Wells, but he should probably be better known for being a monster:

Ggrrrrrrarwrrr. As Buck Martinez put it in the broadcast, “With the Angels ... he always felt like he was fighting for his at-bats.” Indeed. Now he’s relaxed and hitting the snot out of the ball.

But Hamilton hit another high chopper, and this time Price took control:

Did you notice that Hamilton slowed down at the end, instead of plowing through Price for sport? That was nice of him. He seems like a nice guy, regardless of all the tattoos.

Everything’s coming up Joe Maddon.

This game is scoreless through three-and-a-half innings. If this had been Tampa Bay’s defensive alignment through the first two innings, it would probably still be scoreless:

Was that game just a blip? In Price’s five other September starts, he struck out 31 batters, walked 10, and gave up only two home runs in 30 innings. So there didn’t seem any particular reason to worry about Price.

And here in Game 3, he’s pitched three shutout innings so far.

Mike Napoli stole second base off David Price in the second inning. This was stunning because I’ve always figured Napoli ran the bases like Bengie Molina, but without all of that veteran caginess. Turns out, though, that Napoli has 25 stolen bases in his regular-season career. He’s a list of players who have fewer than 25 stolen bases in their careers:

Andre Ethier

J.J. Hardy

Jay Bruce

Hideki Matsui

Nick Swisher

Dan Uggla

Wade Boggs

Ron Cey

Willie Horton

Joe Torre

Ted WilliamsMaybe some of those names surprise you more than others, but I think Nick Swisher surprises me most of all. The guy has played 1,000 innings in center field over his career. That should come with an automatic 25 steals.

I’m afraid I must question their methods, because in just the first inning of Game 3, Kotchman saved seven runs! If you project those skills over 146 games, his Ultimate Zone Rating would be 832!

Throw to second and force the speedy Andrus?

Last year, Colby Lewis was something of a story, coming out of nowhere to surprise the American League, even though he had great success in Japan. He struck out almost a batter per inning, and was a huge part of the Rangers’ run to the AL Pennant in 2010.

This year, though, he’s struggled a bit, adding nearly a full run to his ERA in a season where overall scoring was down. His strikeout rate was down, but his K/BB ratio remained exactly the same as in 2010 (3.02).

The Rays employ their rightie-mashing lineup, such as it is, which means Matt Joyce moves from “de facto pitcher” to “cleanup hitter”:

Desmond Jennings - LF

B.J. Upton - CF

Evan Longoria - 3B

Matt Joyce - RF

Johnny Damon - DH

Ben Zobrist - 2B

Casey Kotchman - 1B

John Jaso - C

Reid Brignac - SSWhile Joyce was hitting in the #9 spot against lefties because of wicked platoon splits and inspired Joe Maddon chicanery, Reid Brignac is hitting there because he’s as close as it gets to a pitcher hitting in the AL.

Game Date/Time: 5:00 P.M. ET, October 3, 2011

Stadium: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida